A decline in violence is not matched by political progress, writes Gerry Moriarty, Northern Editor
This could prove to be the most peaceful year in Northern Ireland since the Troubles erupted 35 years ago. Murders are down and so are "punishment" attacks. General paramilitary criminality continues on a grand scale, as does the exiling of people the paramilitaries don't like.
The report of the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) published yesterday states that all paramilitary groups are engaged in violence and criminality. Yet it is evident from the report and the available statistics that Northern Ireland is gradually becoming a more normal place.
Advances on the security front are not converting into tangible political progress, however, which raises questions about whether that could jeopardise the continuing movement towards a more peaceful society.
There's talk of positive movement since Leeds Castle but no sign of it being translated into Northern Ireland politicians being capable of governing the area.
So far this year four people died in what is often described as Troubles-related violence. The UVF is blamed for two of the killings and the UDA and INLA are suspected of the other two, although the IMC does not specifically attribute them to the INLA and UDA.
If this trend continues 2004 will see the least number of security-related fatalities since 1969.
The IMC indicates that the IRA is still creaming millions of pounds from robberies and smuggling in Northern Ireland, although in the South there is no recent evidence of IRA-organised crime or violence - a commission observation that the Minister for Justice, Mr McDowell, recently supported.
Sinn Féin was dismissive of this latest 52-page offering from the IMC. In April Mr Gerry Adams described its four members as: "A collection of spies, spooks, retired civil servants and failed politicians." Such was the general tone of the republican response to the report yesterday.
That won't surprise its members, former Alliance leader and Assembly speaker Lord Alderdice; former chief civil servant in the Department of Justice, Mr Joe Brosnan; former deputy director of the CIA, Mr Richard Kerr; and former head of the London Metropolitan Police's anti-terrorist unit, Mr John Grieve.
Yet the IMC assessment of IRA activity does support Sinn Féin's argument that P.O'Neill wants to assist the political process.
It is apparent from the commission's report that the organisation which has the shortest journey to take from violence to peace is the IRA. It didn't kill anyone this year and its members significantly reduced the number of people they dragged into dark alleys and shot in the kneecaps or assaulted with baseball bats.
The IMC states there is no sign of the IRA winding down its capability, adding however that there is "no evidence of activity that might presage a return to a paramilitary campaign".
It is still robbing, smuggling, punishing and exiling people. Nonetheless, the IMC's confirmation of a scaling down of IRA activity would appear to support the Irish and British governments' belief - backed up by positive words from Mr Adams of potential "historical and unprecedented" initiatives from the IRA - that the IRA in the context of a comprehensive power-sharing deal is prepared to disarm and end activity.
As far as the IMC is concerned the graph of IRA activity is pointing in the right direction, but that doesn't mean the line denoting IRA actions will disappear.
That hinges on whether the politicians can finalise a deal. With Christmas looming and the Taoiseach talking about an end of November deadline for progress, it is obvious that the drapes are beginning to close over that old window of opportunity.
Deal or no deal it will be difficult, if not impossible, to bring the Continuity IRA and the "Real" IRA, and maybe also the INLA - still all engaged in violence and criminality - into the political peace loop.
But agreement almost certainly would involve Sinn Féin signing up to policing. And with a police force endorsed by the four major parties, it should be easier to tackle the republican diehards.
As for the loyalist paramilitaries, neither is there any indication of them going away.
The UVF is blamed for the murders in March and May of Andrew Cully and Brian Stewart. No organisation has admitted murdering former INLA member Kevin McAlorum, although the finger of suspicion is pointed at his ex-INLA comrades, just as the UDA is suspected of the murder of Darren Thompson in Derry.
The IMC describes the UVF as a "ruthless organisation retaining a capacity for more widespread violence", and the UDA as engaged in "many kinds of organised crime" and punishment attacks.
Whether the next IMC report assessing the extent of paramilitary violence will be more positive rests on whether in the meantime a political deal leads to the restoration of devolution.
If the IRA does become a superannuated force then some of the more astute loyalists, conscious of the additional pressure on them from the police, might decide to reciprocate IRA moves. Others will follow the old path, but face being branded as exclusively criminal.
The exploratory talks involving loyalist political and paramilitary representatives with the Northern Secretary, Mr Paul Murphy, this week indicates that some possibilities may open up here.
Such a benign scenario depends on the politicians cracking the deadlock. The word from the usual sources is that all is not yet lost, although no one is talking in optimistic terms.
There is an inter-dependency between politics and paramilitarism that could be either positive or negative here: if politics is successful, the paramilitaries might go away; if politics fails there is the danger that future IMC reports won't be as encouraging as this one.