The only certainty in Irish politics is the volatility of the electorate. The Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll published today provides plenty of evidence to show that, with about nine months to go to the next general election, people are unsure about their voting intentions. They have divided fairly equally in terms of the satisfaction/dissatisfaction ratings they accord the Government. And they continue to express a high level of dissatisfaction with the quality of the political leadership being provided. This "must do better" message from the general public comes as the political parties enter a new Dail session and set about laying the foundations for the coming election. The public images they create over the next three months will have a vital bearing on their political fortunes in 1997 and will probably dictate the shape and composition of the next government.
Over the past three months the number of undecided voters has risen from 14 to 22 per cent of the electorate the highest level in three and a half years with a marked swing away from the two largest parties. These people moved into the "undecided" category during the summer's political lull and their allegiances may yet return to their original parties. Still, the information that more than one in five of the electorate is now wide open to persuasion and recruitment should generate a competitive atmosphere inside and outside of Leinster House over the coming months. This tendency by the electorate to look around for alternatives has been particularly strong in recent by elections. And the Lab our Party benefited hugely from the phenomenon in the 1992 general election.
Fianna Fail's core vote, at 36 per cent, is at its lowest ebb since Mr Bertie Ahern became party leader in November, 1994. At the same time, Mr Ahern's own public satisfaction rating has continued to decline. He now occupies third place in the listing, with a showing of 52 per cent, lagging behind Mr John Bruton and Ms Mary Harney, but leading Mr Dick Spring and Mr Proinsias De Rossa. This is a worrying trend for Fianna Fail at a time when it should be confidently preparing for government.
In spite of the booming economy, the Government has not managed to convince the electorate that it is doing a good, all round job. Forty three per cent of those questioned were satisfied with the performance of the Coalition partners and 47 per cent were dissatisfied, with 10 per cent expressing no opinion. This was a slight improvement on the situation of last June, when public concern about the level of drug taking and crime in our cities, and the failure of the prison system to respond adequately to it, was at a high level. In that regard, the decision by the Government to hold a referendum in November to change the constitutional position on bail is wholeheartedly endorsed. Seven in every eight voters felt that it should be made more difficult for people charged with criminal offences to get bail. Only 11 per cent of the electorate objected to the proposed change.
On the basis of this opinion poll, the Government parties would face an uphill battle if they decided to seek re election on the basis of existing policies and their record in office. If an election was held today, their combined strengths - based on their core votes - would leave them well short of a Dail majority. Using the same computation, Fianna Fail and the Progressive Democrats emerge as a more likely government partnership. The one outcome that appears to be beyond realisation is the formation of a single party majority government. But, with 22 per cent of voters undecided and the best part of a year to go, anything could happen.