If St Patrick's Day in Washington did not produce a breakthrough on the decommissioning impasse (and few expected that it would) it may be, nonetheless, that the faintest sounds of cracking ice can be discerned in some of the post-White House utterances. April 2nd is Good Friday, the liturgical if not the chronological anniversary of the Belfast Agreement and it has been settled as the fallback deadline for the establishment of the new executive and for the triggering of the other arrangements agreed last year.
The flexibility and the willingness to compromise which have been expressed by Mr David Trimble and the Ulster Unionists over recent months may at last have found an echo in what Mr Gerry Adams had to say after a meeting with the First Minister at the White House on St Patrick's Day. Mr Adams is prepared to "reach out" to the unionists, he says. But he wants to know what precisely it is that Mr Trimble requires before he does so. "I want Mr Trimble in the loop", he is quoted as saying, "before I stretch the republican constituency once again . . . .I am prepared to reach out but I want to make sure that Mr Trimble and I jump together on this".
These are positive intimations, for all that they are accompanied by a reiteration from the Sinn Fein president that he "cannot deliver" an "event" in which a range of republican armaments would be destroyed. This is what Mr Trimble told him he requires, Mr Adams said. And the First Minister, according to Mr Adams's account, was quite specific as to the various types of armaments he wants to be included in an "event", ranging through detonators, explosives, timing devices and so on. When asked if he felt that Mr Trimble was "upping the ante," Mr Adams said that it is "the clearest definition I have got from him . . . and I can't deliver that". But if Mr Trimble is "upping the ante" he is doing no more than Mr Adams's IRA associates, who have three times stated that they will never decommission their weapons. Mr Trimble does not have the facility of a paramilitary Greek chorus to make hardline declarations for him while he extends a reasonable front to the world.
Some observers support Mr Adams's implicit contention that the unionists' demands have been stepped up. Some time ago, this argument runs, a clear statement and an undertaking to work out a timetable for decommissioning might just have given Mr Trimble sufficient scope to move forward. But this would not be enough now, it is said, since positions have hardened and mistrust has deepened. If this analysis is correct, are we then once again confronted with a zero-sum equation, in spite of the fact that both contending parties are showing some willingness to move from their earlier positions? Not necessarily. A whole range of imaginative options is available to achieve a compromise between Mr Trimble's desired "event" and Mr Adams's willingness to "stretch the republican constituency". The role of General John de Chastelain - his certification that things have been done or not done - must be crucial. Weapons, whether in stated quantities or categories, can be earmarked for inventory or for safe storage. There is no need for any symbolic, public destruction for all that it would be reassuring. A clear, unambiguous, unequivocal affirmation that violence has ended is essential.
The scope for compromise is there. It will, in all probability, come down to the 59th minute of the final hour. But those who have the power to make or break the process must recognise that they have responsibilities which go beyond their own immediate sectoral interests. The words of the Taoiseach, President Clinton and Prime Minister Blair on Thursday could not be more apposite. "The agreement endorsed by the people last May must be implemented in all its aspects . . . that is what the people want and we must not fail them".