Harry McGee: Don’t judge this government on its first 100 days

There are few phrases in politics more loaded than “the first 100 days”.

The phrase became synonymous with Franklin D Roosevelt who was elected president of the US in 1933 when its depressed economy was near its nadir.

Once in office, Roosevelt brought huge focus and energy to the terrible crisis he had been elected to resolve. He introduced a social welfare net to the US, brought in banking legislation to shore up the banks, introduced a massive public works programme and distributed emergency aid. There was a National Recovery Act designed to stimulate economic activity. You get the drift. A skilled politician, faced with insurmountable odds, produces something miraculous from whatever the equivalent of a loaf and five fishes was.

It was helped by his peerless skills as a communicator – he connected with the American public in a way few other politicians have done. His “come hither” hashtag was the “fireside chat” delivered on radio each week to millions of Americans.

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Impressive as FDR’s achievements were, the circumstances he faced were almost unprecedented: a depression so deep and so bottomed-out that he could take whatever executive action he chose without having to worry too much about getting it through Congress.

Unsurprisingly, what this extraordinary president did became the yardstick for all of his successors. The first 100 days in office was seen as the critical period for all new incumbents to set their stall for the succeeding three years and nine months.

For those who followed Roosevelt, the first 100 days became less of a prospect, more of a curse

For those who followed Roosevelt, the first 100 days became less of a prospect, more of a curse. Given that a president’s term is so short (only four years) and the process of getting anything done so cumbersome, a narrative emerged that if you hadn’t got a good start by then, you could write off the rest of the term. John F Kennedy regarded it as a “trap”; most others set up “100-day” committees or engaged in a flurry of legislation. Mostly it lacked focus, and if anything defined their presidency (Jimmy Carter is a good example) in the exact opposite way to what had been envisaged.

Political lexicon

Invariably, the “first 100 days” crept into the lexicon of Irish politics, but has never really become central. The first time it became visible in any sense was in the 1977 general election. Campaigns in Ireland had been relatively staid until then. The late Seamus Brennan was Fianna Fáil’s general secretary at the time and had been heavily influenced by US campaigning methods. He introduced an American-style campaign, including catchy slogans, posters, badges and nationwide helicopter tour by leader Jack Lynch (who was a mite uncomfortable in the role). Employing FDR language, it touted an “action plan for national recovery”, which was really a giveaway manifesto.

It promised quick 100-day action such as abolishing domestic rates, ending car tax and increasing income tax allowances. That manifesto won Fianna Fáil a landslide. It implemented a lot of its promises. However, within two years the State was plunged into recession because of those ill-thought-out policies and a lack of rigour in taking tough decisions.

Since then, there has been a variable approach from governments with many wary of over-committing themselves to action in the first 100 days. Still, despite its potential toxicity, the first 100 days myth remains too alluring to ignore for political parties, leaders and the media. When that period has passed for any new government (or leader), there is always an assessment of early successes and failures.

The 2016 Fine Gael-led government had a list mainly focused on housing and water charges. It got most of them done. Did the first 100 days define that government? No. Not at all. Not any more than the last 100 days of that government or any other 100-day period in between.

Embedded in psyche

So is the 100-day concept merely a construct? In many ways, yes, but if it is a myth, it is embedded in the political psyche. For example, in the recent general election, one of Fine Gael’s main posters promised what would be delivered by Leo Varadkar in the first 100 days including a Brexit deal (yeah!), new elective hospitals, insurance reform, more gardaí and bigger grants for first-time buyers.

So is the 100-day concept merely a construct? In many ways, yes, but if it is a myth, it is embedded in the political psyche

There is a misconception about Roosevelt’s New Deal that has persisted to this day. That is that it’s all about the first 100 days. It is not. The figure is arbitrary and not important.

What are important are two factors. The first is the circumstances require urgency. In other words, a crisis or a distinct change of circumstances. So the response must happen quickly if it is to have an effect. The second is the actual actions themselves, not the time frame, are the core things.

Though the threat is a different one, the challenges governments face in the face of Covid-19 are remarkably similar to 1933. And if you look at the programme for government of this coalition, it’s striking how the substance and purpose of so many of the initiative resonate so strongly with 1933. The pandemic unemployment payment and wage subsidy schemes; the July stimulus; the recovery fund; the national economic plan; the national retrofitting programme; they are all modern iterations of the New Deal. Even the Midlands Just Transition recovery plan can be compared to the Tennessee Valley Authority (a hydroelectric public utility created in the region of the US worst-impacted by the Depression).

So it’s the deal itself not the timescale which is important. It is axiomatic but the test of this government’s success or failure will not be determined in the first 100 days, but on whether its ambitious plans pan out as projected.

That said, it won’t dispel the powerful hold the first 100 days myth retains on the public imagination.