Government transition might prove trickier than expected

The Taoiseach visited the offices of The Irish Times last week and sat down for an interview which you may have seen during the week. It concentrated on Northern Ireland, the prospects for a border poll, his Shared Island initiative – likely to be one of his legacies – and he also touched on the shortcomings, as he perceives them, of Sinn Féin’s and the DUP’s approach.

But the Taoiseach also answered some questions about other topics. Among them were his plans for a manoeuvre later this year that Irish politics has never before attempted – the big switcheroo in the Taoiseach’s office, when Fianna Fáil hands over the reins to Fine Gael, leaving Micheál Martin in the Tánaiste’s office with Leo Varadkar returning as Head of Government.

Martin described it as “an important moment to demonstrate that in a fragmented political system we can have continuity in Government”. He believes it is a challenge that the political centre (as he defines it, anyway) must show it can overcome a necessary part of showing that the old rivals (turned frenemies, turned coalition allies) can share power and deliver stable Government that keeps a lid on internal tensions and works together to achieve common goals.

“I’m investing a lot of thought to making sure that happens properly and in a way that adds to the solidity of Government,” he said.

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However, there is no special unit in his department to manage the transition. Instead, he says it can be thought out and implemented by the structures around the three party leaders that manage the day-to-day running of the Coalition at present.

Though there is a danger here; the transition might prove trickier than expected. Here are seven reasons why:

1 Micheál Martin is riding a wave of popularity. The things that are driving that – a general sense, evidenced by polls, that the Government is doing OK; Martin's conspicuous dedication to the job; approval on the handling of Covid; and just being Taoiseach – will continue for the foreseeable future. Which means it is likely that Martin will be more popular by the autumn, while his replacement is not. Says one former Government figure: "People are going to ask: 'That Micheál fella is doing a decent job. Why are they getting rid of him for that other fella?'"

The Government will have to sell the changeover in a way that goes beyond: “Sure, it’s Fine Gael’s turn now.” It needs a rationale and an explanation that doesn’t look like jobs for the boys to a public that is very highly attuned to that particular wheeze.

2 The second problem is that there is no playbook for this. Civil servants joke that the first question asked when a problem arises is: what did we do last time? There's a lot of truth in that, however – it's one of the strengths (and one of the weaknesses) of a strong institutional memory. But on a practical level, someone will have to work out ab initio what the steps and processes for such a reorganisation of Government are. It is not something that can be done on the fly.

3 Reshuffles. Most party leaders hate reshuffles because you always end up disappointing more people (and maybe making enemies of them) than you please. Look at how much trouble Martin caused in his own party with his Cabinet selections first time round. "Reshuffles," says one person who has been party to several, "are always a sh**show." So now we are to have two sh**shows. There will be months of jockeying, anxiety, rumour, uncertainty and then months of fallout. Lovely.

4 The big switcheroo will herald the beginning of a long leadership campaign in Fianna Fáil. Last summer it was assumed that Martin's vacation of the party leadership would coincide with his exit from the Taoiseach's office (if he even lasted that long). But Martin's position has been transformed since, and he will almost certainly move to the Tánaiste's office. But for how long? Few expect him to lead the party into the next election, and just as being Taoiseach has boosted his ratings, not being Taoiseach will have the opposite effect. It will be a while before the sharks smell blood in the water but that day will come.

5 The impending decision by the DPP on whether Varadkar will be charged could complicate the run-in to the changeover. My view is that it is likely to be concluded by then but I might be wrong. I know of two senior people in Government who do not share that view, and who think the issue could be an enormous complication later in the year. If it is not concluded – or if a decision was taken to prosecute other people involved – it would overshadow the whole process.

6 The period ahead will be difficult for the public finances, as the State adapts from debt-financed pandemic spending to levels of current spending financed by taxation. While tax receipts remain robust, the transition will be politically fraught, as the Coalition moves from throwing money at every problem to prioritising them. At the same time inflation is monstering the cost of living and interest rates look set to rise, further squeezing real incomes while also costing the State more to borrow. Tightening public finances will inevitably cause political options to contract.

7 Finally, as the National Maternity Hospital has shown us this week, events have a habit of jumping up and biting governments in the backside. Because so much attention in Government will be directed towards the changeover, that makes unforeseen crises more likely. As things stand this Government has an impressive record of self-inflicted mishaps. It would be naïve to assume that tendency will disappear.