The election campaign got off to an undignified start on Wednesday with Taoiseach Enda Kenny rushing in and out of the Dáil before a bemused Leas Ceann Comhairle Michael Kitt knew what was happening.
It was not the best way to kick off the campaign and it didn't get much better for Fine Gael in the first 24 hours, with unsteady responses to questions about its plans for the "fiscal space" in the years ahead. One puzzled Fine Gael TD commented that the party was like a team that had over-trained for the big match. "Everything was planned down to the last detail but when we went out on the pitch we looked as if we didn't know what to do."
The blizzard of budgetary figures that engulfed the opening day of the campaign appeared to spark a contradiction between Kenny and his Minister for Finance, Michael Noonan and it took a while for it to be ironed out. In the meantime Fine Gael suffered the indignity of being lectured on fiscal rectitude by Sinn Féin. When the dust settled it appeared that the Fine Gael figures did add up, but if people in the party took a little time to get the story straight imagine what the public must have made of all the debate about the "fiscal space."
The “fiscal space” is a fancy way of describing the extra resources that should be available to the Government over the next five years and all parties have ambitious plans for how to spend the extra largesse even if they cannot agree on precisely how much will be available.
Foggy forecasts
The problem is that nobody really knows how much will be there in the years ahead. The only sure thing is that most of the official forecasts will probably be as wrong in the future as they have been in the past.
For the purposes of the election, though, the official forecast produced by the Department of Finance and endorsed by the European Commission is the one the parties have to adhere to.
All of the parties have ambitious plans for spending the extra money that is supposed to be generated by the growing economy, but of course there is no guarantee that it will be there.
For a start the extra money will only be there if the economy continues to grow at a rapid pace. That will require sound budgetary policies at home and a continuing benign environment abroad, and there is no guarantee of either.
The strongest argument that both Fine Gael and Labour have in their armoury is that they ran a successful economy over the past five years in the most difficult of circumstances.
“Keep the recovery going” is a far more effective message than complex arguments about whether the “fiscal space” amounts to €12 billion gross or €10 billion net or whether some figures are or are not being double counted.
In contrast to the confused messages emanating from Fine Gael on the first day of the campaign, Micheál Martin kicked off smartly for Fianna Fáil with a number of crisp media interviews.
He had the fillip on the first full day of campaigning on Thursday of the Irish Times poll which showed an increase in support for Fianna Fáil at just the right moment. Passing out Sinn Féin was an important psychological boost for Martin and his task now is to widen that gap by polling day.
While Sinn Féin did slip in the poll at 19 per cent, the party is still in contention to make significant gains. Party leader Gerry Adams was hit on the first day of the campaign with unwelcome questions about the "good republican" and tax evader Thomas "Slab" Murphy.
The questions arose as a result of the BBC Spotlight investigation into the gun running activities of Murphy during the Troubles and his smuggling activities after that but it remains to be seen whether it will have any impact on Sinn Féin.
One of the surprising features of the poll was the increase in support for Independents and smaller parties in the week the election was called. It had been assumed that their support would decline as the election neared but the opposite has happened. That means that a variety of people, from Shane Ross to Michael Lowry, could well have a role to play in deciding whether the country has a stable government after the election – not to mention smaller parties such as the Social Democrats or Renua.
Labouring the points
The party with the most disappointing result in the poll was Labour. After a successful national conference last weekend it might have expected at least a modest rise but it remained stuck on 7 per cent. Unless it can inch up a few points over the next two and a half weeks Labour will suffer severe losses in the election and the prospect of a stable government emerging will recede.
One possible silver lining was the finding that Labour is the most attractive coalition option for supporters of other parties and Independents. Given that most voters not only believe there will be a coalition of some kind after the election but would actually favour coalition over single party government, there should be an opportunity for Labour to capitalise.
The poll indicates that if Labour candidates can keep their heads above water for long enough they should be capable of picking up preferences from all over the spectrum and that could prove vital in the battle to hold on to vulnerable seats.