It will be some time before the full implications of the chaotic collapse of the world trade talks in Cancun become clear.
The Doha trade round may yet be revived, even if it now looks impossible that it will be completed on time by the end of next year. However the breakdown of the talks creates a dangerous situation for world trade and raises fundamental questions about the World Trade Organisation. It is also a most unwelcome development at a time when world economic confidence remains fragile.
The meeting in Cancun was intended to give a political push to the trade talks, which have been mainly conducted by officials since the round was launched in Qatar in 2001. In the event, the opposite happened. The failure of ministers from the 146 participating countries to plot a way forward has cast doubt on the future of the round and poses dangers to the WTO and the multilateral trading system it is meant to oversee.
There is still a chance that the talks can be rescued, although doing so will now be very difficult. In the immediate aftermath of Cancun, all sides are doing their best to apportion the blame to others. The developing countries say that the rich world was not prepared to open its markets, while the EU and US say many of the other negotiators took an unrealistic approach.
The developed countries - while they did appear to be prepared to make some concessions in Cancun - have been slow to meet the intended spirit of what was dubbed the "development round". Many of the trade practices of the rich world are indefensible. The push by the EU and others to include issues such as investment and competition policy late in the talks contributed to the breakdown. And there are also questions about how the talks were chaired - and more fundamental issues about the way the WTO does its business.
A notable development in Cancun was the formation of a negotiating coalition of 21 developing countries, providing a counterweight to the US, the EU and Japan. Failure of the round would also carry a heavy price for this group and the developing world in general, closing off potential trade opportunities and possibly leaving poorer countries in a weak bargaining position.
All sides need to realise that freer trade - on a fairer basis - has the potential to boost living standards across the developing world, as well as underpinning growth in industrialised countries. The alternative, if the round were to collapse completely, would be uncertainty about the rules governing trade and who implements them. There are already signs that some players will look to strike bilateral trade deals, while in the long term there would be a threat of increasing disputes and even new trade barriers.
The failure of Cancun will surely be recalled in years to come as an important turning point. What is not yet clear is what happens next. Finding a way forward for the multilateral trade system will not be easy, but the price of failing to do so could be very high.