The people of Belarus go to the polls next Sunday to decide who will govern the country over the next five years. The election result seems to be a foregone conclusion.
The current president, Aleksander Lukashenko, will be returned for a third term unless he has a brainstorm and decides that the elections will be free and fair. There is precious little chance of that.
Belarus is a country which is unused to freedom and independence. For much of its history it was occupied by Lithuania or Poland or Russia and it only gained independence from the Soviet Union 15 years ago. But the country's real independence remains limited because of its economic reliance on Russia and its freedoms are non-existent unless you are a supporter of Mr Lukashenko.
Opponents of the president are beaten up, murdered or simply disappear. State control of the media is virtually total. Belarus retains a busy KGB. Collective farms are still the norm. The state owns most industry and the president's cronies have all the top posts. Parliament, such as it is, is packed with the president's loyalists and the constitution was rewritten to suit him in a totally flawed referendum. Not surprisingly, Belarus is referred to as the "North Korea of Europe" and its president as "Europe's last dictator".
Mr Lukashenko does, however, have some support in the country because of the improvement in living standards. Economic growth, according to the IMF, is running at nearly 5 per cent. Wages have risen dramatically and inflation is down, the level of poverty has been cut in half. Mr Lukashenko practises redistributive economics and, to be fair, they are working. Belarus voters would know well how the poor have fared in other former Soviet countries over the same period.
Whether the economic improvements can continue, however, is another matter. Wages rose by 24 per cent in the last year but industrial output grew by a quarter of that. Belarus receives its gas supplies from Russia at a huge discount. In the main, its elderly industries produce sub-standard goods in world terms but Russia purchases large amounts nevertheless. In short, the economy will continue to grow only for as long as Russia is prepared to pay for it. Small wonder that Mr Lukashenko, in the past, has advocated reunification with his neighbour.
The Russian president has no interest in reunification as the status quo limits the financial cost of supporting Belarus. But if the elections prove to be as flawed as other polls conducted under Mr Lukashenko's regime, Mr Putin must be persuaded to withdraw his support. The tyranny that Mr Lukashenko is set on must be opposed.