Two years to the day since the horrific Hamas attack on Israel on October 7th and another round of peace talks is under way in Egypt. This time they are about a peace formula – not yet a “deal” – announced as definitive by US president Donald Trump. He has arm-twisted Israeli prime minister Binyamin Netanyahu into accepting its terms and Hamas has indicated qualified agreement. The devil will be in the detail in the process now underway, initially what US secretary of state Marco Rubio called working through “the logistics” of the hostage release.
If the hostages are freed, then the most difficult negotiations begin. Rubio has spoken of the talks “in two phases” – the second, on disarming Hamas and Gaza governance was, he said, “going to be hard”.
Hamas has indicated a willingness to exchange about 20 living hostages and the bodies of 28 dead ones for 250 Palestinians serving life terms and hundreds more detained Gazans. In exchange, the Israelis will observe a ceasefire and partial withdrawal from Gaza which would be governed by a Palestinian technocratic administration under a transitional board, chaired by Trump and on which former British prime minister Tony Blair will serve with other international figures.
Israel has yet to commit itself to a permanent ceasefire and long-term non-aggression against Gaza, or to a willingness to accept a two-state solution, only hinted at in the Trump plan, while Hamas has yet to agree to disarm or remove itself from Gaza.
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Netanyahu’s far-right cabinet allies remain determined to block further concessions and may yet bring down his government, while on the streets pressure for a hostage deal is intense. Polls show a majority of Israelis, long sceptical of “total victory”, favour ending the war to get the hostages back. The terrible death toll on the ground, meanwhile, continues to rise as Israeli attacks continue.
The talks matter – the critical leverage at last being applied by the US suggest they have a chance of progress. But there is a way to go yet.
