Ostensibly the bloody border exchanges over the last week between Cambodia and Thailand were about the revival of centuries-old territorial claims to ancient temples and surrounding areas. Over the years sporadic clashes have killed soldiers and civilians on both sides.
The five-day-war, in which a ceasefire was declared on Monday, appears in reality to have sprung from a personal falling out between two of the region’s erstwhile strongmen leaders, along with internal military/civilian tensions in Bangkok, and apparent Chinese willingness to see regional frailties tested. At least 38 are reported to have died in the conflict, while up to 300,000 have fled as refugees,
Thailand, a US ally, hosts dozens of military exercises with American forces; China is the largest trading partner of both Thailand and Cambodia, which hosts a naval base largely funded by Beijing.
In the end, an “immediate, unconditional” ceasefire was brokered by Malaysia, with the assistance of US president Donald Trump’s threats of trade consequences for both sides if they did not co-operate. There was also a nudge from China. The ceasefire may hold, but has done nothing to heal the instability that triggered the conflict.
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In the background are two former prime ministers, Cambodia’s longtime autocratic leader Hun Sen, and Thailand’s populist Thaksin Shinawatra. They were once bosom buddies. Hun Sen, now succeeded by his son, Hun Manet, has long supported Thaksin’s family during a power struggle with Thailand’s military. The latter were delighted weeks ago to see courts oust Thaksin’s daughter, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, as prime minister over what was seen as a overly sycophantic leaked phone call to “uncle” Hun.
With the Hun-Thaksin relationship disappearing, nationalists in both militaries seized an opportunity to vent old grievances. Each side continues to accuse the other of initiating the attacks on contested temples. An uneasy peace is the best that can be hoped for.
