A jump in support for Independents is one of the most notable features of the latest Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll. The poll shows a minimal change in support for the Coalition parties since the last poll in April but Sinn Féin is down four points while Labour and the Social Democrats have slipped by a point and the Greens have remained static.
It appears that voters who are disillusioned with the Government are moving towards Independents rather than Sinn Féin or the other more established left wing parties, while the number of undecided voters now stands at a significant 25 per cent.
The huge number of undecided voters and the rise in support for Independents indicates that a substantial segment of the electorate does not have great faith in either Government or Opposition.
There is some consolation for the Government in the fact that the Opposition parties are actually losing support, but the poll also indicates that the Coalition has inspired no great enthusiasm among the electorate since taking office just over six months ago. In the longer term that could spell trouble, particularly if the Government has to adopt serious budgetary measures in response to a trans-Atlantic trade war.
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When it comes to satisfaction with the party leaders, Micheál Martin has widened his lead over Simon Harris and Mary Lou McDonald while satisfaction with the Government has remained the same since April.
In party terms Fianna Fáil has seen no change in support since April, retaining 22 per cent of the vote. Sinn Féin has exactly the same vote share but this represents a drop of four points since the last poll while Fine Gael has gained one point from a very low base to 17 per cent.
The Fine Gael vote in Dublin is holding up reasonably well and it is the biggest party in the capital, marginally ahead of Sinn Féin and well ahead of its Coalition partner. However, the party appears to have a serious problem in Munster where it continues to struggle. For Fianna Fáil the story is the reverse. The party’s vote is holding up well everywhere, apart from Dublin where it continues to languish in third place.
Sinn Féin will be disappointed not to have built on the significant increase it achieved in the last poll. Instead its support has slipped back close to what it achieved in last year’s election. It indicates the challenge facing the party if it runs a candidate in the forthcoming presidential election.
It all indicates a fractured political landscape and uncertainty among many voters about which party should get their support. A vital period now lies ahead, with the tariff situation on a knife-edge and the budget coming into view. The decisions made in the coming months could yet be defining for this Dáil term.
