Lee Jae-myung’s emphatic victory in South Korea’s presidential election offers Asia’s fourth biggest economy the chance of political stability following six months of turmoil since last December’s brief imposition of martial law. But the 61 year-old former human rights lawyer inherits formidable challenges, starting with Donald Trump’s threat to impose a 25 per cent tariff on all goods from one of the United States’ closest allies.
Lee’s 49.42 per cent of the vote put him eight points ahead of conservative Kim Moon-soo but it fell a few points short of the landslide predicted by the polls. And his failure to win more than half the votes cast reflects the deep polarisation in South Korea’s politics following the impeachment of conservative president Yoon Suk Yeol, which triggered the snap election.
Yoon imposed martial law, banning political activity and putting the media under state control, for just six hours before revoking the order in the face of a vote to overturn it in the national assembly. He claimed that he acted out of frustration because Lee’s Democratic Party was using its majority in the legislature to obstruct his government.
In his inaugural address on Wednesday, Lee promised to “build bridges of coexistence, reconciliation and solidarity” in an effort to unite the country as he strengthened its democratic institutions. But the public’s verdict on him will depend on his success in addressing the country’s economic problems which have seen slowing growth in an economy where exports account for 40 per cent of output.
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Negotiating a reduction in Trump’s threatened tariffs, which include sectoral tariffs on steel, aluminium and cars, will be Lee’s priority. He says that he will do whatever is necessary to secure a good deal. The new president will also face pressure from Washington to increase South Korea’s contribution to the cost of maintaining the US military presence there amid reports that Trump is considering a cut in troop numbers.
Lee has promised what he describes as a pragmatic foreign policy rooted in his country’s interests and promised to restore lines of communication with North Korea. Pyongyang has abandoned its aspiration to uniting the two Koreas and declared Seoul its main enemy but Lee is hoping his move towards engagement will prevent Trump from agreeing a nuclear security deal with North Korea’s leader Kim Jong-un over his head.
Lee has also promised a reset in Seoul’s relations with Beijing and Moscow, a move that reflects the shifting geopolitical landscape following Trump’s return to the White House. The European Union is anxious about this foreign policy tilt but South Korea remains a key ally and economic partner and Lee’s election carries more opportunities than risks.
