Fine Gael leader Simon Harris will be thankful that the next election is not due until the end of the decade given that his party has slumped to its lowest rating in more than 30 years, according to the latest Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll. For Sinn Féin, meanwhile, there are signs of a potentially significant revival as it regains it position as the most popular party.
Fine Gael has dropped to 16 per cent, a support level it last achieved back in 1994 when John Bruton was leader. It is a clear warning that the Fine Gael support base is not impressed by the way it has been performing since it returned to office after the November election.
Voters may feel that the party has simply been in office for too long. It has held power for the past 14 years and it is not attracting younger voters who are looking for change, particularly with regard to housing.
The leadership does not appear to be the key issue in the three point drop in support since the last poll in November. Although Simon Harris has seen his satisfaction rating slide by four points, it is still a respectable 42 per cent, three points behind Micheál Martin and five ahead of Mary Lou McDonald.
Still, it is clear that Fine Gael will have to do some serious thinking and a lot of hard work to have any chance of recapturing the position it won in 2011 as the biggest party in the State. Younger middle class voters in particular appear to have deserted it.
By contrast, the news for the other big government party is better. Fianna Fail is up one point to 22 per cent since the last poll – and in line with its election performance. Martin is the most popular party leader. Holding the Taoiseach’s office in these uncertain times he has clearly impressed the public as a safe pair of hands.
The news for the main Opposition party, Sinn Féin, is good with a jump of six points since the last poll to 26 per cent. The party is still a long way off the ratings it achieved in the middle of the last government term, but it is moving in the right direction and will feel that its return to the position of the most popular party vindicates its tactics since the last election.
There are no significant moves among the smaller parties, with the Social Democrats making small gains. The big gain in Opposition support has thus gone to Sinn Féin. This appears due in part to the decision of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to form a coalition with the Regional Independents. A majority said they would have preferred another arrangement, while almost two thirds of voters did not support Michael Lowry’s central role in these talks.
There has been no honeymoon for the Coalition and the results of the poll will both put pressure on its internal dynamics and embolden the main Opposition party.
