That initial talks between Iran and the United States in Oman were described by the US side as positive and constructive and by Iran as respectful and between equals is some good news during a highly uncertain period in international affairs. The talks are to continue next week. Their subject matter, Iran’s nuclear arms programme and sanctions against that state, are however complex and not fully resolvable in the two month timespan demanded by President Trump. Interestingly, both sides have strong incentives to reach an agreement.
Trump withdrew the US from the multilateral agreement reached with Iran in 2018. Since then Iran has proceeded to enrich its military uranium to the point where it is now within months of making several nuclear warheads, perhaps with the missile technology capable of delivering them. Sanctions have crippled its economy, creating deep public disillusionment with its clerical regime. Iran now has better relations with neighbouring Gulf states and deeper ones with Russia and China, although its regional “axis of resistance” with Hamas in Gaza, Hizbullah in Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen is much weakened after Israeli assaults.
Trump has a close political and military alignment with the Israel prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu, as seen in the continuing destruction of Gaza, but that does not mean Israel is driving US policy towards Iran. Trump wants a diplomatic success and fears the US being drawn into a prolonged military escalation in the Middle East which could do him lasting damage. His threats to bomb Iran are crude, yet they have brought the two states rapidly together for these talks.
A phased approach to negotiations and outcomes, reaching interim deals ahead of a possible comprehensive agreement involving other international players , is potentially achievable in these two months. That would require compromises and trade-offs by each side, made easier by their mutual incentives to find them. Words like constructive and respectful bode well for such a process after this encounter.
