It has been suggested by a number of commentators in recent months that the subject of Irish reunification has slipped down the political agenda. More than than one explanation has been offered for this. Sinn Féin’s falling support south of the Border has weakened the party’s contention that unity was not just inevitable but imminent. And the election of a new, more emollient UK government has taken some of the heat out of the post-Brexit tensions which did so much to boost the argument for constitutional change.
Polling this week offers fresh insights into how public opinion is developing on the issue on both sides of the Border. This is the third year of the research collaboration between The Irish Times and the ARINS (Analysing and Researching Ireland North and South) project, a joint initiative of the Royal Irish Academy and the University of Notre Dame. The latest topline results once again show strong support for unity in the Republic, while a clear majority in Northern Ireland continues to oppose it.
However, the research also shows the pro-union margin in Northern Ireland, while still substantial is shrinking. That shift is driven almost exclusively by rising pro-unity sentiment among those from a Catholic background.
This may in part be due to the increasingly energetic debate in civil society circles on the issuein recent years. And while there is little or no sign of any comparable shift among those from a Protestant background, there is growing support among both communities for the proposition , in the wake of the chaos that followed the Brexit referendum, that any constitutional change to the status of Northern Ireland must be preceded by comprhensive planning.
‘I couldn’t believe it was happening’: Ukraine holds on in Russian border area six months after lightning attack
Peter O’Mahony happy to take on the boo-boys at Murrayfield if it means playing for Ireland
The Boy from the Sea by Garrett Carr: Wry, observant, various and thoughtful, this novel does something only art can
BYD’s Atto 2 will shake up the EV market, but don’t expect it to be lots of fun
There are also signs that those from a Protestant background in Northern Ireland are increasingly open to holding a unity referendum, perhaps because they are confident it can be defeated. There is also a broadening acceptance in that community of”losers’ consent”, should unity take place. Both developments are welcome, although neither should be interpreted as a softening on the core constitutional question.
While support for unity remains strong in the Republic, it continues to be accoimpanied by a reluctance to consider measures that might take account of the identities and concerns of unionists. It is notable that the more symbolically “British” proposition, of rejoining the Commonwealth, is viewed more negatively than the more materially consequential one of joining Nato. There remains a strong strain within Irish nationalism that sees unification in crudely assimilationist terms.
That is one of the challenges which those arguing for runity will need to address over the next few years, which seem set to be a period of incremental change, dialogue and debate rather than dramatic constitutional change.
