The result of the general election and the overall shape of the 34th Dáil are now relatively clear. In terms of their share of the popular vote, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have remained almost exactly where they were after the last election in 2020. That makes Ireland an exception to the anti-incumbent trend seen in democracies across the world over the past year.
The sole victim of that trend was the Green Party, which has effectively been wiped out as a parliamentary force for the second time in its history.
However, the party that has lost most popular support in percentage terms is not the Green Party but Sinn Féin, down five percentage points from its 2020 result. The party has done an impressive job of presenting this as a successful recovery from the lows it experienced earlier in the year. In reality, though, it is a remarkably bad performance by the main party of opposition. If it is to offer itself as a credible alternative government by the time of the next election then Sinn Féin will have to radically rethink its approach.
The popular vote will soon be forgotten as the arithmetic of building a governing majority comes into focus. Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have achieved a combined tally that leaves them only a handful of seats short of that majority. That fact is already changing the calculus on whether the two large parties will require a third partner to replace the Greens. The prospect of relying on support from Independents, many of whom have political roots in Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, may now look more appealing to some in the two parties. Similarly, the Social Democrats and Labour, both of whom had successful elections, will be even more wary of entering into coalition as the mudguard to a much larger bloc . They will also fear suffering the same fate at the next election as the Greens experienced at this one.
It may well take some time – far too much time, perhaps – for the new government to be formed. But it is clear that at its centre will be Fianna Fáil, which is now the country’s most popular party at a general election for the first time in 17 years. Due to a combination of incumbency advantage, strategic canniness and luck, Fianna Fáil now holds a clear numerical advantage over Simon Harris’s Fine Gael.
The result is a vindication for Micheál Martin, who has led his party back from the existential brink it faced in 2011. He has managed to do so without being blessed with an oversupply of visible talent on his own front bench.
If there is one conclusion to be drawn from this result, then, it may be that the electorate has chosen stability and continuity over change. The party leader who most clearly embodies those values over the course of the campaign was Martin, who now has the opportunity to take the lead in shaping the direction of the country over the next five years.