With a general election looming, reaction to the results of this week’s Irish Times Ipsos B&A poll has inevitably focused on the horse race between the political parties. But the answers to some of the other questions asked in the poll have elicited responses that merit reflection.
On the Budget, which the Government will present in 10 days’ time, respondents’ views are clear. By a substantial margin, they favour measures to address cost-of-living pressures. Their second priority is for increased investment in public services. Tax cuts – the subject of much kite-flying in recent months – come down the list.
The results confirm a long-term trend. The Irish electorate prefers an emphasis on public investment rather than on reductions in personal taxation. It has become a truism that the political consensus is now located firmly on the economic centre-left, but that does not make it any less true.
Not surprisingly, successive governments have responded accordingly, using most of whatever financial leeway was available to them to increase expenditure. That is likely to be the case again when the Budget is unveiled. Voters’ enthusiasm for cost-of-living supports will also be acknowledged with the continuation for a third year of the “once-off” measures first introduced in 2022.
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Another question which this week’s poll explores is voters’ appetite for change. The word has become so over-used in recent political discourse that it is in danger of becoming meaningless. Both Keir Starmer in the UK and Kamala Harris in her US presidential campaign have sought to embrace it while also stressing stability and continuity. Change was the mantra that drove Sinn Féin’s surge in the last general election and the party undoubtedly hopes to rediscover that winning formula before the next one takes place.
Yet the poll shows that while 38 per cent of voters want “radical” change, 51 per cent prefer change that is “moderate” with 8 per cent wary of any change at all. Such terms are open to multiple interpretations but they suggest a majority preference for modest, incremental reform rather than any overturning of the current order. That is reflected in preferences for government, with a clear lead for those who favour a continuation of the current coalition or a modest adjustment to its constituent parts.
It appears that the politician who has tapped most successfully into the current mood is the Taoiseach. Since he replaced Leo Varadkar six months ago, Simon Harris has seen his popularity soar. He is the clear favourite to lead the next government. That would be a remarkable achievement for the leader of a party that has been continuously in power for more than 13 years. Change, it seems, is in the eye of the beholder.