It has become a familiar refrain from all sides, but seldom have the warnings that the Middle East is on the verge of an even more brutal and extensive regional war seemed more pressing. Calls for restraint need to be heeded. The assassinations by Israel of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran and Hizbullah commander Fuad Shukr in Beirut and last weekend’s Hizbullah rocket strike, which killed 12 Druze children playing football in the Golan Heights town of Majdal Shams, have sharply raised tensions.
Hamas warned that the killings and retaliation would “take the battle to new dimensions”, and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke ominously of “challenging days ahead”. Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said “we consider … revenge as our duty.”
Prospects of a Gaza ceasefire deal and the return of hostages, which had reportedly been close to agreement and in which Haniyeh was playing a key role, have been dealt a hammer blow. So have hopes for a rapprochement with the west promoted by Iran’s new reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian.
The conflict’s dangerous dynamic is at a tipping point. The cast list of international actors already involved in military exchanges on multiple fronts is extensive. In Gaza, Hamas and its allies are in direct conflict with Israel,which is armed by the US and western allies. In the West Bank settlers are attacking Palestinian communities. On Lebanon’s border Hizbullah attacks are supported and supplied by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards. In Iraq and Syria, Iranian proxy militias have been targeted by US airstrikes, while in Yemen Houthi militias are launching waves of rocket attacks on Israel and threatening shipping.
There have, up to now, been unspoken limits to the level of engagement of each. Diplomats believe that the governments of Israel and Iran and the Hizbullah leadership are not interested in a full-fledged war. On the other hand none of them is ready to absorb a blow from their enemy without a proportionate response.
Now there are fears that a full Israeli invasion of Lebanon or the particularly provocative attack on Haniyeh on Iranian soil may prompt an escalation of direct Iranian involvement. Until now Iran has played an arm’s length game, using proxies and supplying weapons, but avoiding direct involvement until its large but unsuccessful retaliatory missile strike against Israel in April.
Israeli retaliation for the Golan killings was inevitable, and Haniyeh was already on a target list, but it had a range of choices about how and where to strike back. Observers wonder if the chosen option of an attack on Iranian soil will – deliberately or otherwise – lead to Iranian escalation on a scale that would draw the US more directly into the conflict. Israel is playing with fire and the region looks more volatile than it has for many years.