A moment of some historical significance occurred early yesterday morning when it was confirmed that, for the first time in 54 years, no Paisley would represent the people of Antrim at Westminster. The shock defeat of Ian Paisley Jr by TUV leader Jim Allister put the cap on a grim election night for the DUP. The one bright moment – party leader Gavin Robinson’s successful defence of his seat – was soon eclipsed by losses in Lagan Valley, South Antrim and the Paisley heartland of North Antrim.
The turbulence in unionism contrasts with the calm predictability on the nationalist side, where Sinn Féin and the SDLP each maintained their existing seat tallies. Sinn Féin can point to the fact that it is now the largest Northern party at Westminster, although its MPs abstain from taking their seats. In the headcount politics of the North, that fact will be deployed in service of the argument that demographic and cultural changes are trending inexorably towards majority support for Irish unification. The truth is more nuanced. With the SDLP comfortably holding its two seats, nationalist parties again make up half of Northern Ireland’s representation, with unionism one seat behind. Alliance once again won one seat (albeit in a different constituency). In terms of the constitutional question, then, this has been a no-change election. But Sinn Féin will be pleased that there was no repeat of the softening of its support which has occurred south of the Border.
The real story of this week’s election is of shifting tectonic plates within political unionism, in particular the continuing drift away from the DUP. Opposing factions within that party will no doubt be able to find ammunition for their particular views on the way forward. Should the DUP pursue the voters it lost to Allister by hardening its position on the Northern Ireland Protocol, even perhaps by withdrawing once more from the Executive? Or do its losses to the UUP and Alliance suggest a shift towards the centre is required? Meanwhile, the usual calls for unionist unity are already being made. History suggests these are likely to be ignored again.