October 7th has become the new “9/11″, a moment when the world seems to have stopped momentarily on its axis and a new brutal page of history is turned. A savage attack by Hamas on civilians, resulting in 1,200 deaths and 240 hostage seizures, became the justification for the “pacification” of Gaza, the “eradication of Hamas”, a bombardment that has surpassed the civilian attrition in any recent conflict. Some 60 per cent of the more than 20,000 deaths in Gaza are civilian, according to Israeli paper Haaretz. Forty per cent of Gaza homes have been damaged or destroyed, and up to 1.8 million displaced, the UN reports. Hunger and desperation stalk Gaza.
Immediate heartfelt sympathy across the world for Israel has turned into appeals for restraint, a humanitarian ceasefire, and sharp questions about the “proportionality” of its response. The rules of war, the Geneva Convention, do not allow this, no matter how egregious Hamas’ conduct or its willingness to shelter behind civilians. The forcible displacement of populations, the bombing of hospitals and the denial of food and water are also prohibited.
Israel has also turned a deaf ear to appeals from the US and others to the question “what next?” and specifically to discussion of the two-state solution which has near universal support.
In the face of this unspeakable tragedy, the voice of the world community, the UN, supposedly guardian of global security and peace, is largely silent; in the words of its secretary general Antonio Guterres “paralysed” by a US veto. Just before Christmas, the Security Council finally passed a resolution, with the US abstaining on the vote. It called for large-scale delivery of aid but did not demand an end to hostilities, calling only for the creation of “conditions for a sustainable cessation of hostilities.”
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The permanent members’ Security Council veto, also used in February by Russia to block criticism of its actions in Ukraine, is the most glaring manifestation of the unwillingness of the great powers to cede the UN real teeth in multilateral security issues. Its removal or dilution is the key to the vital reinvention of the UN.
In Ukraine the much-anticipated 2023 counter-offensive has yielded few gains. Commander-in-chief General Valery Zaluzhny, admitted in an interview to a battlefield stalemate. “Just like in the First World War we have reached the level of technology that puts us into a stalemate.” There is, he added, unlikely to be any “deep and beautiful breakthrough” for Ukraine’s forces.
The continued support of allies is more crucial than ever – but stalling. Hungary has been holding up an EU aid package worth ¤75 billion over a four year period. Other member states are trying to find a way to pay the money. And Republicans in Congress are blocking further arms support from the US<EN>in an attempt to get anti-migrant measures imposed on the Mexican border.
Marking his defiance, President Vladimir Putin has declared his intention to stand again next year for a fifth term. It has been a good year for fellow autocratic and populist leaders despite the upset in Poland by Donald Tusk of the 10-year rule of the Law and Justice party. In Argentina “anarcho capitalist” Javier Millei won a surprise victory, taking up the Latin-American Trumpist mantle of Brazil’s defeated Jair Bolsonaro. He is already making waves. Slovakia and Italy are now ruled by right/nationalist parties, and Europe’s political balance has been further upset by the poll-topping performance of Dutch Islamophobe Geerd Wilders’ Freedom Party.
There are fears that 2024′s European Parliament elections will see strong gains for the far-right in France, Germany and Spain, amongst others. Recent polling shows that the populist impulse to go to extremes in response to voters’ resentment and distrust of institutional politics is winning over young people. Only 40 per cent of Europeans between the ages of 16 and 29 trust politicians, and they believe less in the traditional left/right divide than do older generations. A strong far-right could make EU decision-making difficult, notably on the green agenda.
Tayyip Erdogan was re-elected in Turkey. Xi Jinping was appointed to an historic third term in China, currently undergoing a purge of senior officials. And India’s Narendra Modi is heading for another term in the upcoming elections.
In the US , former president Donald Trump, boasting that he will only be a dictator “on day one”, is ahead in the race for the Republican nomination for a second term despite court battles in which he is facing 91 felony charges. Lawsuits in several states seek to have him disqualified from the presidency. A trial either before the party convention or during the election is likely to be turned into pure theatre by the accused and could precipitate turmoil unprecedented in the annals of American law and politics.
Against a background of two bloody wars, world politics will enter another turbulent year in which democratic values and resolve will again be put to the test.