Sunday’s general election in Poland has delivered a clear result. After eight years in power, the national-conservative Law and Justice party (PiS) of Jaroslaw Kaczynski has no route back to power, clearing the way for a new government based on a coalition of three groups representing liberals, centre-right Christian Democrats and the left, led by former prime minister Donald Tusk’s Civic Platform (KO).
The long and bitter campaign seemed to pitch two Polands against one another, one urban and liberal, the other rural and conservative. Poland, the EU’s sixth largest economy, has performed well economically over recent years, though some parts of the country have lagged behind. PiS has compensated for this wealth gap with generous subsidies targeted at rural communities. Its supporters say it is the only party that cares about the poor; its opponents say it buys votes.
In the face of growing concerns about inflation and the withholding of post-Covid EU grants of ¤35.4 billion as reprisal for the government’s attacks on the rule of law, PiS ran a fiercely negative campaign, accusing Donald Tusk of being a tool of Berlin and Brussels who would open Poland up to large-scale Muslim immigration. It attempted to shift the fight from the economic to the cultural ground, attacking pro-European elites it claimed did not understand “the real Poland” and celebrating rural culture and traditional Catholic values. While PiS got the most votes of any single party, according to exit polls, it is Tusk who should be able to form a government.
Sunday’s election was a vital one for Poland, but also for Europe. Over two terms, PiS has gradually eroded the substance of democracy, dominating state media, packing the legal and administrative apparatus with its supporters and moving towards an authoritarian mode of government. With three opposition parties now in sight of power, it seems the Poles have decided to turn away from the PiS party-state. With a record turnout of 73 per cent, they have chosen the democratic route.