Tunisia is beset by multiple crises threatening to pitch it into fresh political and social turmoil. The Arab uprisings of 2011 originated there in a despairing local protest, after which the country pioneered civic involvement and engagement by women in democratic change. The great failure to translate this political opportunity into popular economic and social progress frustrated such hopes in following years. Tunisia is now at a political nadir as the increasingly authoritarian President Kais Saied locks up opponents, refuses reforms and uses racist scapegoats against African migrants to cover up his many failings.
Externally the country’s pressure points are most visible in sharply growing migration statistics and deaths among many of those fleeing by sea.Tunisia is now the main departure point for those fleeing poverty and conflict in Africa - with more tragic loss of life over the weekend as another boat sunk.
In Tunisia, the International Monetary Fund is demanding extensive reforms in return for financial support. Saied turns to Egyptian and Gulf leaders for support against this pressure. Internally hundreds of opponents have been arrested and media silenced against a background of deepening unemployment and higher inflation. A prolonged drought brought on by climate change has led to damaging cuts in water supply.
Tunisia’s troubles reflect wider problems in the North African and Middle East regions. It shares migrant transit issues with Libya, weak and peripheral economic problems with neighbours and internal resistance to social change with most other regional states.
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Tunisia deserves more considered and long -term partnership with the European Union. The EU engaged enthusiastically with Tunisia’s democratic opening but sentiment changed after the 2015 Syrian crisis towards a policy driven by migration and anti-Islamic scares. That is no basis for a constructive forward policy designed to help restore political, social and economic sustainability in this part of the EU’s near abroad.