There are two ways of framing the tank standoff among Ukraine’s western allies. In one version, Germany is in unsplendid isolation, refusing both to send its Leopard 2 battle tanks to Ukraine or to grant others the required export permission to send theirs. In another version, Ukraine’s western allies are all talking about sending battle tanks but, just like Germany, have yet to do so.
German politicians –- and ordinary Germans – are debating the pros and cons of sending tanks. Each day chancellor Olaf Scholz and his chancellery officials study the latest war developments and play through scenarios of sending – or not sending – tanks.
With a fresh Russian offensive looming, there are reports that the chancellor is now ready to give the green light to send tanks eastwards. With indications that the US may be ready to send its own tanks, the German leader could have the US cover he sought. But fears remain in Berlin that supplying tanks could see Nato being dragged into the conflict.
Since the invasion, Ukraine has been demanding that its western allies send battle tanks to drive back Russia from its territory. The US has refused , up to now, to supply its tanks, claiming they are unsuitable, while even Ukraine’s loudest ally in Europe, Poland, has been agitating rather than acting. Earlier this month Warsaw spoke of assembling a coalition of the willing to deliver Leopard 2 tanks – with or without Germany.
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It took until Tuesday – exactly 11 months after the invasion – for the Warsaw defence ministry to actually file a Leopard 2 export request with Berlin.
Perhaps Poland and Germany’s other Nato allies in Europe are, like Berlin, aware of the gravity of sending tanks but happy to have someone else to blame for their own inaction.
After the tanks, Ukraine wants Nato members to deliver Eurofighter and Tornado battle planes. Expect minimal debate elsewhere and another round of tortuous discussion in Germany. A country with two terrible wars in its past is determined not to sleepwalk into a third.