Nothing less than transformation of the economy is required to get Ireland on the right track in reducing its carbon emissions. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)
projections show Ireland is unlikely to meet its target of halving emissions by 2030, needed to have a realistic chance of reaching carbon neutrality by mid-century. In an unusually frank assessment, the EPA points to a gross failure to implement agreed plans backed by new policies at the pace and scale necessary. Additional measures are urgently needed to meet even more modest targets by the end of the decade.
The country’s decarbonisation targets are ambitious but necessarily so. They are based on science, contributing to a global effort to keep planetary overheating to within 1.5 degrees and attempting to avoid runaway climate change and increasingly irreversible impacts. It is about humanity controlling its own destiny, and therefore is the morally correct course.
Yet Ireland is far off legally-binding targets, notably in agriculture and transport, though every sector is falling short of what is required. The horrible reality is that for every day we believe climate disruption is a crisis of tomorrow and not today, the harder and more costly it becomes to take actions with reasonable guarantee of success. Meanwhile, global temperatures continue to rise, exacerbating extreme weather events that strike unannounced in vulnerable parts of the planet.
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Of immediate concern in Ireland is the likelihood that carbon budgets will be exceeded, meaning that millions of extra tonnes of carbon dioxide will be released into the atmosphere. The first five-year budget runs up to 2025, but 2020 and 2021 indicate a rising emissions scenario overall, meaning an average yearly cut of just 4.8 per cent will be impossible to achieve. This failure to decarbonise at a moderate rate risks undermining credibility in the carbon budget mechanism, when it is a critical decarbonisation tool and provides transparency on performance.
Ireland is fortunate in having forged a broad-based political consensus on climate issues. Its citizens have shown strong backing for action. The latest projections, however, suggest an implementation gap persists. This will require a much more robust climate action plan when it is revised by the Government later this year. Greater honesty is needed too on what meaningful collective action looks like. It is time to be a lot firmer on climate messaging. Cherrypicking less politically-contentious options must end. Just transition supports for those disadvantaged by what is required can be the catalyst for delivery at pace. The country needs to transform its economy backed by behavioural changes throughout society which can ensure a liveable Ireland this century and beyond.