When pollsters ask voters about their top priority for any Government tax or spending largesse available in the forthcoming budget, are they really going to get at the truth? Particularly when the question is couched in terms of how voters would prefer to disburse only “some” of the available resources? Or are we to expect answers that reflect what voters think they should say, the politically more acceptable? Perhaps.
And is it meaningful to count together the preferences of those who can benefit from tax reductions because they are paying a lot of tax – and hence are likely to favour tax cuts over spending increases – with those who are likely to be beneficiaries of higher spending? Those who contribute to the State coffers, with those who draw on them? Apples and oranges.
But then that’s democracy.
It appears that the Government has, or at least has agreed that it has, some €1.5 billion in fiscal leeway this year and intends, if the spin from the coalition parties is to be believed, to split it 50-50 between tax and spend. In the 2015 Budget some £1 billion was split 40-60 in a division that we were told reflected Labour pressure not to be seen to be favouring middle class taxpayers at the expense of beleaguered social services. The tussle for the divi-up appears to be leaning more to Fine Gael this time.
In truth what matters less about the tax and spending preferences expressed in the latest Irish Times Ipsos/MRBI poll are the absolute figures – 6 per cent and 8 per cent respectively would prioritise reducing income tax and the Universal Social Charge, while 27 per cent would increase spending on healthcare – than the relative degrees of concern they express in completely different orders of magnitude. Politicians should note the real depth of anger about the health service and the housing/homelessness crises and, importantly, the apparent willingness of voters to see cash diverted from their own pockets to meeting those challenges.
Overall just less than a quarter wanted tax cuts of one kind or another, while two-thirds opted for spending increases. Significant class differences are unsurprisingly reflected in some of the preferences expressed – among those favouring healthcare and housing spending increases as a priority, some four in ten of voters, we find skilled and semi-skilled workers and the unemployed strongly represented compared to the professional middle classes (particularly on housing, at two to three times the level).
On the need to prioritise healthcare spending we also find an urban-rural divide, with significantly more rural voters demanding increased spending. A reflection perhaps of the degree to which rural hospital closures have impacted. Fine Gael would do well to take note.