UK election: Tories and Labour struggle with the possibility of toxic coalition partners

With 50 days to polling Ukip and SNP know they can force hand of bigger parties

Their language is significantly different about possible post-election coalition allies. Ed Miliband, Labour's leader, on Monday firmly ruled out a formal coalition involving cabinet posts with the Scottish National Party (SNP), but argued that his party could accept a "confidence and supply" voting arrangement which would see the SNP backing Labour in confidence and budget votes.

Prime minister David Cameron was yesterday less definite about the principle of coalition with the United Kingdom Independence Party (Ukip), arguing only that the prospect of meeting the later's demand for a referendum this year on Britain's EU membership was "pretty slim". A bit of wiggle room there.

The argument reflects a sharpening of the focus of the election debate on real issues following a prolonged, distracting exchange about who would debate with whom on TV and when. There is now an increasing feeling in the air that an election is really imminent and polls make the coalition question central

With 50 days to go until the general election, PA's poll of polls puts an improving Labour on 33.6 per cent, marginally ahead (0.6 per cent) of the Tories although projections suggest no party can expect to win an overall majority of 326 seats. The Guardian is forecasting the Tories to win 280 seats, with Labour on 266, the SNP 53, the Lib Dems 25, Ukip 4, the Greens one and others 21.

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Both Labour and the Tories are desperately trying to curb the defection of their votes to the SNP and Ukip respectively – the latest polling suggests Labour faces a virtual wipeout in Scotland with Ukip, still unlikely to break through in seat terms in the first-past-the-post lottery, eroding the Tory Party's ability to win seats in inherently conservative constituencies.

Cameron has played astutely on the toxicity of the SNP with English voters to force Miliband into a declaration that he may regret, however - and have to repudiate. It is certainly unlikely to endear him to Scottish voters. . Ukip will also be revelling in Cameron’s discomfort - his ambivalence, a nod to their respectability now and ultimate acceptability as a potential Tory partner. Grist to their mill.