The past year provided the backdrop to a carefully orchestrated election campaign by the Government as it promoted the rewards of a growing economy while avoiding – with mixed results – political banana skins. It was a bumpy ride for the Labour Party but Fine Gael scaled the high ground. Having trailed both Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil in opinion polls at the end of 2014, it emerged as the likely leader of the next government. It was a dramatic transformation.
Within a year of massive street protests over water charges, administrative incompetence and the withdrawal of discretionary medical cards, public rage had waned and the Government’s satisfaction rating was climbing. It was hard to believe this was the same Coalition that had taken such a pounding in the local elections at the hands of Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin and Independents. The basis for that revival? As Bill Clinton had it: “Its the economy, stupid”.
Jobs were being created in all regions and national output had grown to a dizzying seven per cent. Two expansionary budgets had put money back into people’s pockets and they were spending it. The recovery found its way into rural Ireland and Fine Gael, in particular, was gaining at the expense of Independents and Others. In spite of wooing public service workers with commitments to reinstate pay levels, develop services and reduce taxes, the Labour Party remained stuck.
As Fine Gael pulled ahead, Joan Burton successfully resisted an early November election and some Labour TDs argued they should go into opposition if they failed to win 15 seats.
Devolved government in Northern Ireland was again under threat as Sinn Féin refused to implement welfare cuts and the continued existence of the Provisional IRA was confirmed. Months of exhausting negotiations and fudge put the rickety show back on the road before Peter Robinson made way for Arlene Foster as DUP leader while Colum Eastwood took over from Alasdair McDonnell as head of the SDLP.
In the teeth of an election, Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil struggled for opposition dominance with Gerry Adams and Micheál Martin insisting they would only enter government as majority parties. Mr Adams wouldn’t look at Fine Gael but was prepared to do business with Fianna Fáil. For his part, Mr Martin didn’t want anything to do with Sinn Féin. A subsidiary arrangement with Fine Gael was, on the other hand, a step too far.
The fall-out left by Alan Shatter, requiring reform of the Garda Síochána and the legal profession became a Government priority. A finding by the Fennelly Commission that Taoiseach Enda Kenny had not really intended to sack former garda commissioner Martin Callinan helped considerably. And amendments made to the Legal Services Bill served to placate lawyers.
By year’s end, however, the Department of Justice still lacked a general secretary and there was no certainty that urgently needed administrative and structural reforms within the Garda Síochána - recommended by the Garda Inspectorate - would be implemented.
Independent TDs made the headlines by drawing attention to financial arrangements made by IBRC, formerly Anglo Irish Bank, and the National Asset Management Agency.
Determined questioning by Catherine Murphy about the sale of Siteserv to an Isle of Man company controlled by Denis O’Brien brought a sworn inquiry and caused him to initiate legal action against the Oireachtas. Revelations by Mick Wallace concerning the sale of NAMA’s €1.6 billion Northern Ireland portfolio to US company Cerberus generated police inquiries in three jurisdictions.
Fortune favoured the fiscal double-act of Michael Noonan and Brendan Howlin as their pre-election largess was matched by unexpectedly high tax revenue. Public service concessions failed to satisfy nurses, gardaí and teachers, however, and the Haddington Road agreement came under pressure. Income tax cuts and a property tax freeze were promised while Enda Kenny undertook to reduce or abolish the Universal Service Charge.
Lessons from the economic crash concerning the dangers of an excessively narrow tax base were ignored, even as health services struggled and promises of Scandinavian-style childcare were made. Costly measures to cope with global warming, flooding risks and storm damage were finessed into the future.
Homelessness and social housing became dominant issues. A five-year, €4.8 billion public construction programme announced by Minister for the Environment Alan Kelly was welcomed.
But it wilted badly when confronted by the reality of a social housing crisis in Dublin, rapidly rising private rents and dispossessed families. As the year drew to a close, a record number of people were living in emergency accommodation.
Years of retrenchment, followed by sudden and spectacular economic growth has left the electorate bemused. Voters have not yet decided what they want in terms of social policies and government formation.
A Fine Gael/Fianna Fáil coalition would represent an historic change, but there is a broadly based belief that Fine Gael and Labour will benefit from postponing the election into the New Year. We shall see.