The painful electoral logic that applies with Northern Ireland’s May election

DUP likely to be the main beneficiary in pact with UUP

It's not the electoral pact between the unionist parties in four of the North's Westminster constituencies that is undemocratic, but the wretched first-past-the-post electoral system. It is the latter which encourages and rewards both polarisation politics and electoral pacts which reflect and entrench the North's sectarian divide. And which virtually ensures the eclipse of smaller middle-ground parties which may thrive in proportional systems like the elections to the Northern Assembly.

The SDLP, whose leader Alasdair McDonnell has been complaining about the circumvention of democracy represented allegedly by the DUP/UUP pact , has itself been a victim of the remorseless logic of first-past-the-post. Once it took over the lead position in the nationalist community Sinn Féin, like its counterpart in unionism, the DUP, has been able successfully to milk the logic that a vote for the smaller party is not only wasted because its candidates will not be elected but may surrender the seat to “the other side”.

It is not reasonable to expect unionist parties which in practice differ so little politically not to accommodate themselves to the reality of the voting system – on the nationalist side there is a far greater ideological gulf between Sinn Féin and the SDLP, and the latter is right not to do a similar deal.

The DUP is likely in reality to be the main beneficiary of its agreement with the UUP, securing almost certainly a return to the fold of East Belfast for Gavin Robinson after its surprise loss of its leader's seat in 2009 to Alliance's Naomi Long. Long, by most accounts has been a superb constituency MP, although she has faced considerable intimidation.

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The UUP's Tom Elliott, agreed candidate for Fermanagh South Tyrone, is likely to face a stiffer challenge against Sinn Féin's Michele Gildernew although she won by only some four votes last time. In Newry and Mourne and North Belfast the UUP's Danny Kennedy and the DUP's Nigel Dodds will respectively fly the flag for unionism, to mix an unfortunate metaphor.