The Irish Times view on Ukraine crisis: Shuttle diplomacy

The busy diplomatic traffic between European capitals, Washington and Moscow reflects the hope that as long as the protagonists in the crisis over Ukraine are talking, the risk of confrontation is reduced. What Russian president Vladimir Putin intends to do with the more than 100,000 troops he has ordered to Ukraine's borders is still unclear, but the costs of an invasion – and the opportunities in a compromise – are becoming clearer for Moscow.

While pledging a severe and united response to any Russian aggression in Ukraine, Western leaders have also gone some way to accommodating Moscow. France has come close to conceding the principle that Russia should be involved in discussions on "a new European security order" – a long-held Russian demand. But Putin risks overplaying his hand.

His insistence, after five hours of talks with French president Emmanuel Macron in Moscow, that the West must address his demand for Nato to rule out further eastern expansion and withdraw its military presence in the region, were not the words of a man who is preparing the ground for a retreat. The surest way of ending up in conflict is to make demands that you know the other side cannot meet.

For now the best hope is that continuing talks allow for the situation to stabilise

European leaders have worked hard to present a united front, but their differing views on the crisis are an open secret. Macron denied reports that he had told a journalist the "Finlandisation" of Ukraine – implying a form of neutrality – was on the table, but his remark that "there is no security for Europeans if there is no security for Russia" will seem to many, not least in eastern Europe, to legitimise Moscow's demand for a new security architecture for the continent. There is a fine line between acknowledging Russia's concerns and bowing to military threats.

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For now the best hope is that continuing talks allow for the situation to stabilise, but even in the most positive scenario, attempts to resolve the crisis will stretch to weeks if not months or years. The threat of war could loom over Europe through 2022 and beyond.