The Irish Times view on the US withdrawal from Afghanistan: the Taliban’s opportunity

The definitive closure of Bagram Air Base, the nerve centre of 20 years of American military operations in Afghanistan, marks in a real sense the finality of US withdrawal from the country.

It is the end of a campaign by international allies that has left the battered country precariously teetering on the edge of a Taliban takeover, which intelligence agencies reportedly believe could occur within six months.

Fewer than 1,000 US troops are still in the country, mostly in the capital, Kabul, protecting the huge US embassy and liaising with the government and national army. Today the city resembles Saigon after the US left Vietnam, nervously awaiting inevitable overrun. Government passport offices are overwhelmed, humanitarian groups are pulling out expats, contractors are leaving, and those who worked with the US anxiously wait for word they too will be shipped out.

In the provinces since May the resurgent Taliban has steadily expanded its footprint, particularly in the north, where a quarter of districts are now fully under its control.

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The delusion of security provided by the Americans, whose determination to leave was never fully believed by Afghan leaders, has left a woefully weak government

In some provinces, almost all the areas beyond city limits have fallen and government supporters fear a push on provincial capitals. Government forces are surrendering without a fight while there are reports that over 1,000 have fled across the border to Tajikistan.

Locals say that the Taliban’s brutal enforcement of sharia law is back with a vengeance – beatings, amputations, floggings and executions, while women now must again wear the all-enveloping burqa and cannot work or leave their home for any reason without a male “guardian”. Shopkeepers are ordered not to serve women out alone, and Taliban beat unaccompanied women.

The delusion of security provided by the Americans, whose determination to leave was never fully believed by Afghan leaders, has left a woefully weak government and a conventional army barely able to confront the more flexible and nimble guerrilla Taliban. The US war may be over, but Afghanistan’s is most certainly not.