Editorials

The Irish Times view on the latest poll with Ipsos MRBI: Ominous signs for coalition

Only option for three main parties to retain support is to stick together

Minister for the Environment, Climate and Communications Eamon Ryan, An Taoiseach Micheál Martin, An Tánaiste and Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment Leo Varadkar and Minister for Public Expenditure and Reform Michael McGrath

Mon Oct 11 2021 - 00:01

There was ominous news for the Government in the latest Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll, which revealed a sharp decline in support for Fine Gael and a significant drop in satisfaction with Tánaiste Leo Varadkar, as Sinn Féin consolidates its position as the largest party.

The five-point drop in Fine Gael support to 22 per cent is the party’s worst poll finding since the disastrous election of February 2020. The 13 point drop in satisfaction with Varadkar indicates that Fine Gael has a serious problem with its public image and that has implications for the long-term survival of the Coalition.

Given that the poll also shows a remarkably high level of support for the Government's performance on Covid-19, the only conclusion is that that achievement has not produced a sustained political dividend. In addition, the long drawn-out Katherine Zappone affair will not have helped Fine Gael. The silver lining for the Coalition is that Fianna Fáil support has remained solid at 20 per cent and there has even been a marginal increase in Green Party support. Satisfaction with the Government itself has fallen but it is still at a respectable 46 per cent.

The findings of the poll on climate change indicate that the cohesion of the Coalition will be tested when it comes to implementing the measures required to meet the country’s carbon emissions targets. The poll shows massive public opposition to higher taxes on electricity, gas, petrol and diesel. The public is also strongly against risking electricity supply and reducing the size of the national cattle herd. The only climate change measure to have majority support is allowing more land to be used for building wind turbines.

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The scale of public opposition to the measures that will be required to meet the Government's climate targets is a stark warning about the level of unpopularity it is likely to face as it moves to implement the climate agenda. That will inevitably create tensions between the Greens and their Coalition partners, as the current row over the roads programme has shown. With Sinn Féin and other Opposition parties set to oppose carbon taxes the shape of the battle ahead is already clear.

To compound its problems, the public overwhelmingly backs the decision of President Michael D Higgins not to attend the religious service in Armagh to mark 100 years of partition and the Northern state although Ministers made little secret of their disappointment at his decision. And just as the Government signs up to a new international tax code a clear majority express a desire to retain the 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate.

Given the challenges the Coalition faces in retaining public support as it attempts to deal with major policy issues like climate change and housing the only option facing the three parties is to stick together for as long as possible.

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