The Irish Times view on the Covid spike: an information gap

Covid-19 is circulating at very high levels across Irish society – higher, conceivably, than at any point in the pandemic to date, though the reduction in PCR testing and patchy reporting of antigen test results makes it difficult to establish reliable numbers. Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly estimates that several hundred thousand infections are occurring every week, and the Government believes the number of people in hospital could yet reach 2,200. That would put a hospital system that is already under real strain under intolerable pressure.

As a result, pressure is building for the reimposition of some public health restrictions. The most persuasive call has come from the Emergency Department Taskforce, a body that includes HSE and trade union representatives, which has appealed for measures that would better protect health and social care provision during the current surge. Government is reluctant to reintroduce restrictions, the legislative basis for which is due to expire tomorrow. It points out that about half of those in hospital with Covid were admitted for something else, and takes some reassurance from the fact that intensive care admissions as a result of the virus are stable. More broadly, the argument for the status quo is that the State cannot keep lifting and reimposing restrictions and must instead trust people to take responsible steps to protect themselves and others. To eradicate the highly transmissible BA.2 subvariant would take extreme measures, Donnelly has said.

In principle that makes sense. But it would be more convincing if the public was provided with information that would better inform individual decisions. Since the winding down of the National Public Health Emergency Team, the flow of information on the country’s epidemic has slowed dramatically. In particular, it is not clear what modelling underpins the Government’s thinking; knowing how the authorities expect the current wave to progress would enable people to make better decisions about their own behaviour. It is a lesson the pandemic has taught us countless times: hoping for the best is not a viable policy.