The Government has one budget left before it faces the electorate. On the basis of recent election results and current polls, the parties stand little chance of being returned to power together. But uncertainty over government-formation, a revision of constituencies, greater internal discipline and benefits from a strongly growing economy could alter that scenario.
Public disillusionment over the bank bailouts and cutbacks demanded by the Troika have driven political sentiment over the past two years. The main beneficiaries have been Independent candidates, followed by Sinn Féin and Fianna Fáil. The advances made reflected the intensity of their opposition to Government policies and to water charges in particular. For Fine Gael and Labour, ineptitude over health reforms, a failed Seanad referendum and the mishandling of Garda controversies overshadowed positive economic developments and damaged their credibility.
The Government’s rout over water charges and its promise of further changes to Irish Water arose from early miscalculations and deep-seated public resistance. The concessions on offer may assuage some voters but they will stiffen the resolve of “won’t pay” activists. How the Government responds to fresh challenges on that front and whether it can shift the public focus towards the positive news of job creation and a rapidly recovering economy will decide its future.
Opposition parties and Independent TDs have their own problems. On the face of it, the electorate is preparing to tip the traditional forms of government into the dustbin. Independents attract the highest level of support but group members represent widely differing viewpoints. If a strong and unified body of TDs emerges from this political soup, however, it could play a major role as taoiseach-maker. If that doesn’t happen, Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil or Sinn Féin may have to bite the bullet and link up with traditional enemies.
Before that situation arises, efforts to frighten the electorate into supporting the status quo can be expected from the Government parties with warnings of political instability and potential anarchy. Boundary changes and a reduction in Dáil numbers will have an effect while additional five-seat constituencies may favour Independents and small parties.
In spite of assurances that the Government will run its full term, into 2016, political advantage points to a post-budget election in 2015. Ministers have a year to prepare; to reinvent themselves as effective administrators and saviours of the economy. The time available, in political terms, is an age. By October a recovering economy should provide Michael Noonan additional funds and an up-beat agenda. But before he dons a Santa Claus outfit, he and his colleagues should avoid creating unrealistic expectations. A huge national debt cannot be wished away.