There had been an assumption, no more than that, that Enda Kenny was not going to be around as Taoiseach for that long. Nothing in writing, you understand. Just a sense, and one he did nothing to disabuse, that the promise not to lead Fine Gael into the next election meant in practice perhaps another year at most at the helm.
That suited Fine Gael, despite its gratitude to the man who, despite all, got them another term in government – the party would have time to bed in another leader, to get the voters used to the new face. To rebrand ahead of an election.
It suited the heirs-presumptive, the Frances Fitzgeralds, the Leo Varadkars, the Simon Coveneys, chaffing at the bit, scarcely able to conceal their ambition, who,like the youngbloods Simon Haris and Paschal O’Donoghue, all feel their time has come. And who know with certainty that another election under the same leader would be painful.
The assumption suited Fianna Fáil. The party fought an election not to put Kenny back in power. And after the election it made much of its same mandate. Kenny's name was the one most cited by those who opposed coalition, not Fine Gael. Kenny was the one who epitomised the gulf between the parties, and, not least, the haughty disdain they perceived in Fine Gael for the Soldiers of Destiny. And, then, to have to support a Kenny government ... At least Kenny would not be around long.
Though there were some in Fianna Fáil who would relish the possibility he would stay on and the damage it would do to Fine Gael’s electoral prospects.
The assumption suited the Independents too. They would prefer to face the next election without the voters’ constant reproach that they were keeping “that man” in power.
No-one, however, seems to have asked themselves the question whether it suited “that man” and his personal ambitions and game plan, Enda Kenny. Whether it suited the one person who, alone, had the power to make it happen. Or the power to prolong the long march.
Yesterday, however, the Taoiseach dropped his little bombshell. The phoney bubble burst. Enda confirmed he will serve a full term in office but will not lead Fine Gael into the next general election. “I have always said that my intention would be to serve the full term but not to lead the party into the next general election. I’ve made that perfectly clear and that’s where I am but I have a lot of work to do in the meantime.” Who, me? How could you all think any different? I never promised nuffink, guv ... and, indeed, he did not.
Kenny yesterday demonstrated what this paper’s political editor only last Saturday described as his “extraordinary instinct for political survival”, a knack of being able to cut through the conventional wisdom, of reading the runes and real balance of forces in his party and politics.
And no-one will say boo to him.