The two Dáil defeats suffered by the Government last week raise questions about its ability to survive the year ahead. Since it took office last May it has suffered six defeats on private members motions and has only narrowly avoided more.
The Government’s vulnerability is hardly a surprise given that it is assured of the support of just 57 TDs out of a Dáil of 158 members. It is only able to function at all because of the confidence and supply agreement with Fianna Fáil which means that it has been able to get key pieces of legislation like the budget passed into law.
The political reality is that it can only be sure of getting its way in the Dáil with Fianna Fáil support or, at the very minimum, abstention by the main Opposition party. Fianna Fáil is only committed to supporting the Government on the issues identified in the confidence and supply arrangement and is free to vote against it on other matters as they arise.
Sinn Féin and the various left wing opposition forces are becoming more adept at identifying issues on which they can potentially defeat the Government and embarrass Fianna Fáil into supporting their motions. Although the Government can live with occasional defeat on opposition motions, as the Fianna Fáil minority government did between 1987 and 1989, the cumulative impact has the capacity to bring it down sooner than expected.
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Ministers complain that some of the Dáil motions causing them difficulties are little more than political posturing. This may well be true but it was ever thus in politics. If it is going to fulfil its ambition of lasting for least three budgets, the Government will need to address its relationship with Fianna Fáil. The main opposition party is growing increasingly restive at what it regards as obstruction by the Government in implementing some of its initiatives approved by the Dáil.
If the “new politics” is to work, Fianna Fáil will have to be able to point to some concrete achievements from the arrangement. Party TDs have been complaining that even when it gets bills accepted they are immediately bogged down in the legislative process after referral to Oireachtas committees.
The other side of the coin is that for the arrangement to work, Fianna Fáil will have to avoid sponsoring bills and motions designed for short term political gain that ignore economic realities. The party will also need to adopt a more resolute line in refusing to be drawn into backing nakedly populist motions from smaller parties.
It is abundantly clear that far less legislation is being enacted by the current Dáil than by its immediate predecessor. Unless all of the parties can find a way of getting a reasonable amount of serious business through the House, there may be little point in prolonging the life of the 32nd Dáil.