Defeat for the Fine Gael-led Government on a Labour Party motion involving workers’ rights represents clear evidence of the instability of the political arrangements, involving an ‘issue-by-issue’ understanding with Fianna Fáil and conditional commitments from Independents, that underpin it. The result of the Dáil vote did not require a general election – only defeat on a financial measure or a vote of ‘no confidence’ would do that – but it should prompt Sinn Féin to pay more attention to strategy.
Having miscalculated last week by attempting to embarrass Fianna Fáil and Independent Ministers and force the abolition of water charges, Sinn Féin offered critical support for the Labour motion. When Fianna Fáil followed suit, the Government’s counter-motion fell and Labour emerged as a key advocate of workers’ rights. Sinn Féin complained the party had failed to implement the suggested reforms while in government. But that couldn’t disguise Labour’s role in defeating the Government or its trade union credentials.
The Government defeat is likely to be the first of many, with Fianna Fáil providing opposition or support as public opinion and circumstances dictate. An underlying assumption, arising from lengthy negotiations involving Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin, is that the Government will continue for at least two years. But the precise terms of that agreement – and the political price extracted – are not known. Such secrecy can become corrosive within the parties concerned. News that the Fianna Fáil leader was allowed to choose three of the Taoiseach's 11 nominees to the Seanad caused surprise and anger within Fine Gael.
The much-vaunted ‘new politics’ may be sufficiently flexible to accommodate a succession of minor Dáil defeats. But signs of obvious weakness and an erosion of authority bring their own consequences. If “culture eats strategy for breakfast”, then traditional attitudes towards the exercised of power will re-emerge – such as the Dáil failing to elect a leas ceann comhairle – and the Government may suffer “death by a thousand cuts”.
Opinion polls have found little change in support for political parties since the election, with Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil vying for supremacy. Should Mr Martin succeed in leading the largest party into the next Dail, it would provide a fresh dispensation for ending divisions rooted in the civil war. Mr Kenny's successor would find it almost impossible to reject an arrangement so recently promulgated by Fine Gael while Fianna Fáil would be unlikely to step away from government leadership. Such a scenario would place pressure on left-leaning parties and Independents to cooperate. Brendan Howlin has been making overtures to the Social Democratic and Green parties in his efforts to revive the Labour Party, but the prime role in orchestrating opposition strategy is likely to fall to Sinn Féin.