Erdogan's gamble has paid off handsomely. With a stunning and unexpected comeback, the Islamist party of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan took back its majority in parliament in Sunday's re-run general election, ensuring his continuing dominance over Turkish politics. The Justice and Development Party (AKP) took 49.4 per cent of the vote, a solid majority of 316 seats in the 550-member parliament. It will now be able to resume its briefly interrupted 10-year single-party rule.
The victory came at a heavy price for Turkish society. Frustrated by his minority position following the June election, and his inability to come to coalition terms with the Kurdish-led Peoples’ Republic Party (HDP), Erdogan precipitated the country back into bitter political division. He ended a two and a half-year ceasefire deal with the Kurds – hundreds have since died – and launched a crackdown on press freedom. His strategy proved effective, securing major gains at the expense of the far-right nationalists with the cynical promise that he alone could restore the stability that he had undermined.
Although a corruption scandal last year involving many of Erdogan’s closest allies and the June election setback seemed to suggest his star was on the wane, he has shown that he has a knack for speaking for ordinary Turks, particularly outside the capital and Istanbul.
Ostensibly above politics, the president has been trying for some time to move the country to a US-style executive presidency with real powers but needed a “supermajority” of 330 seats in parliament to change the constitution. He remains signifcantly short of that ambition. The main secularist opposition, the CHP, saw its share of the vote slip to 25.4 per cent with 134 seats, while the HDP which had broken the Erdogan majority by overcoming the 10 per cent threshold in June, retained enough votes to stay in parliament with 59 seats.
The prospect of some stabilisation has fed a positive response in the markets although there are fears that Erdogan’s authoritarian brand of populism will not heal the country’s deep divisions, while the continuing presence of up to two million Syrian refugees will drain state budgets. Turkey’s once booming economy has also slowed sharply, with the Turkish lira plummeting more than 25 per cent to new lows in recent months.
The US is hugely dependent on Turkish air bases in the fight against Islamic State in Syria, and the EU is desperate for help with migration. Despite their misgivings about Erdogan's commitment to democratic values they will be willing to give him the benefit of the doubt. Criticism will be muted at the G20 leaders' summit in Antalya in two weeks time. The half of Turks who did not vote for him may find the next few years uncomfortable .