Election fallout

In seeking to put together a stable administration and a programme for government, Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin must reflect wishes of voters who elected their parties to dominant, if reduced, positions of influence

Much has been spoken and written about the confused nature of the election results and the uncertain political guidance provided by the electorate. A deal of that commentary reflected past patterns of political behaviour and a reluctance of Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil to engage robustly with an unappealing verdict.

As Enda Kenny and Micheál Martin ruled out the possibility of a coalition arrangement during the campaign, surveys and exit poll sampling pointed strongly towards such an alliance.

But what about the kind of society voters wished for and the policies they hoped a new government, of whatever complexion, might implement? Rejection of the Fine Gael/Labour Party Government, in spite of progress made on the economic front, suggested that its social programme represented a major handicap.

Exit polls referred to inadequate healthcare and hospital services as primary motivating factors while housing and homelessness also resonated with voters. Fine Gael’s commitment to abolish the Universal Social Charge had raised the issue of fairness while the consequence of reducing available State funding by €4 billion suggested that social investment was not its priority.

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An exit poll conducted by RTÉ found that a majority of voters favoured spending more on public services, particularly on healthcare, rather than cutting taxes. But little appetite was shown for government action designed to reduce differences in income and wealth.

The most favoured outcome in a variety of surveys was a Fine Gael/Labour party government. But a coalition arrangement involving Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil came next and attracted twice as many Fianna Fáil as Fine Gael supporters.

Fairness and better social services, along with political stability and continuing economic growth, represented the core concerns of the electorate. Negotiations involving the two major parties during the coming weeks, first with Independent TDs and the smaller parties, and eventually with each other, should reflect those priorities. An agreed parliamentary programme of the kind suggested by Mr Martin is an interesting idea, but it could prove more difficult to sell to Fianna Fáil members and to maintain than a coalition deal.

As leader of the incumbent Government, Enda Kenny has particular responsibilities. Fine Gael retains support as the party most likely to deliver a successful economy but, on the basis of election results, it failed to provide an acceptable narrative of how the benefits of growth would be allocated.

In contrast, Fianna Fáil put in a strong campaign on the issue of fairness and gained significantly from it. In seeking to put together a stable administration and a programme for government, Mr Kenny and Mr Martin must reflect the wishes of voters who elected their parties to dominant, if reduced, positions of influence.