Now that the final Dáil seats have been filled, the possible configurations of a new government have reduced dramatically. The remaining realistic options involve a minority, Fine Gael-led government, supported from outside by Fianna Fáil, or a grand coalition composed of both parties. The first option would be inherently unstable; the second, an unpalatable development for supporters of both parties. The results confirmed the continuing conservatism of voters and the dominance of independents from the Fianna Fáil gene pool.
Talk of reforming Dáil structures should be viewed with scepticism when parties behave as if fiscal discipline doesn’t matter and civic responsibility is optional. The dust had hardly settled on the public’s rejection of Fine Gael’s proposal to prioritise tax cuts over public spending when Fianna Fáil advanced the abolition of Irish Water and a suspension of water and sewage charges as its key demand in pre-government negotiations.
At a time of overwhelming demand for more effective health services, additional social housing, investment in education and affordable childcare – all of which will cost money – attention has been deliberately diverted to water and sewage charges, without apparent concern as to eventual cost, job losses, civil obedience and the effect on social spending. Anti Austerity Alliance/People Before Profit led the campaign against water charges before Sinn Féin embraced a policy of total rejection. Not only that: the party insisted there would be no refund for householders who had paid up. Fianna Fáil followed suit, promising temporary abolition and no refund. Fine Gael appeared to wobble on the issue before Enda Kenny declared the charge to be "fundamental" for his party. In the coming weeks and months, the electorate can expect further distractions and visits to political cul-de-sacs before the tyranny of Dáil numbers forces an accommodation on the major parties.
Politicking contributed to the last economic crash through a process of currying favour with voters and narrowing the tax base. It is happening again. Water charges and property taxes have already been capped for two or three years and most parties want to reduce, or abolish, the Universal Social Charge. No wonder the EU Commission and the Irish Fiscal Advisory Council have rung warning bells. The Commission is concerned that capital investment will fall well short of what is required to sustain long-term growth. It alleges poor value for money in the health services, childcare costs, persistent poverty and a failure to plan for an ageing population.
Long-term planning rarely figures in Irish politics. “If I have it, I’ll spend it”, has been the standard approach. Lessons should have been learned from the recession. But this diversionary focus on water charges, rather than on major investment requirements, suggests otherwise.