The appalling attack by suicide bombers on Istanbul airport on Tuesday, which resulted in 41 fatalities and 239 wounded, has been claimed by Islamic State (IS). Five Saudis died and there were citizens from Iraq, China, Jordan, Tunisia, Uzbekistan, Iran and Ukraine among the 13 foreigners killed in the deadliest in a series of suicide bombings this year in Turkey mostly blamed on IS.
Ataturk airport is the third busiest in Europe, a major transit hub for passengers across the world and, as such, it is a prime target. The attack bore striking similarities in methodology and in its sheer brutality against civilians to the co-ordinated March attacks at Brussels airport and the city that killed 32, and to the attacks that killed 129 people in Paris last November.
The attack could be read as a direct response to recent Turkish successes in the fight against terrorism and important Turkish diplomatic demarches in recent days – a controversial rapprochement with Israel after a six-year angry stand-off over the Israeli killing of protesters trying to break the Gaza sea blockade, and an unusual apology from President Recep Tayyip Erdogan to Vladimir Putin over the Turkish downing of a Russian fighter jet last November.
In reality the degree of elaborate planning involved in the three-man attack makes it more likely that its timing was simply fortuitous for IS whose increasing preoccupation with Turkey is centrally about disrupting the latter’s bid to restore its regional standing and influence.
“Turkey had been going through a deep sense of isolation for the past few years,” says foreign policy expert Asli Aydintasbas, “having switched from its famous ‘zero-problems-with-neighbours’ policy to a place where they had no neighbours without problems ... This was the loneliest point in the history of the republic.” No longer.
The objective may be destabilisation and the attack will create jitters. But it is likely to rally the country around Erdogan and legitimise the military crackdown on both IS and Kurdish rebels. But with IS controlling 100 km of the border with Syria and free to infiltrate fighters, and Erdogan determined to treat Kurdish fighters – IS's most effective foes – as "terrorists", questions are being asked about whether this is a war that can be won.
Erdogan's pandering to hardline nationalists does not square with his reputation for pragmatism, manifest not least in the outreach to Russia and Israel – only a few years ago it was he who began the process of bringing in the Kurds from the cold. Now he is contributing to hobbling the struggle to unseat both Bashir al Assad in Syria and IS. Little wonder his Nato and EU partners are most uneasy about a relationship with an ally they badly need to nurture to deal with the refugee crisis.
The attacks in Istanbul airport serve to emphasise that challenge.