Although the devil is in the detail – to be finalised by June 30th – and the final few paragraphs of international agreements are often the most difficult, the framework understanding reached between Iran and six world powers is rightly being seen as a major step forward for peace in the region and in the rehabilitation of Iran in the world community. There were celebrations on the streets of Tehran as people cheered and honked car horns at the prospect of a life without sanctions on oil and financial transactions, although sanctions' removal remain among the final issues to be yet agreed and both France and Germany have cautioned against imagining the deal is yet done.
The agreement, brokered under the leadership of the EU’s foreign policy chief, Federica Mogherini, will require Iran to cut the number of centrifuges enriching uranium by half, put thousands of others in storage and convert two facilities into research sites that would have virtually no fissile material, the ingredients of atom bombs. Iran would drastically cut its stockpile of nuclear fuel, from 10,000 kilos to 300 kilos, although it will retain the right to engage in civilian nuclear research. It would also be subject to a rigorous inspection and verification regime with access at will by UN inspectors to all facilities. Failure to comply would see sanctions reimposed.
Critically, the negotiators for the six insist, the deal will ensure that the talks’ principal aim is met – ensuring that an Iranian “breakout” scramble for nuclear weapons could not happen in less than a year. Such constraints will apply, however, for only the next 10 years, a breather that reflects a gamble on the dynamics of Iran changing in that period to reduce the threat from the Islamic State. Or it will be back to Lausanne.
Criticism of the deal will have to be ridden out – internally in the US through President Barack Obama’s use of executive prerogative against fierce Republican opposition in Congress, and in Iran by its equivalent, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fiat. But it appears likely the deal will hold in both countries. Internationally the US will work hard to persuade the Saudis that the agreement sufficiently reduces the strategic threat from despised Iran to obviate any necessity for the kingdom to begin its own nuclear programme.
Israel's President Binyamin Netanyahu has also criticised the framework agreement. "A deal based on this framework," he argues, "would threaten the survival of Israel. " But its "breakout" buffer and inspection provisions provide a strong argument against unilateral Israeli raids on Iran's nuclear plants, whatever Mr Netanyahu may say. In that regard he also faces significant resistance from within his security establishment where assessments of Iran's capabilities accord more closely with those of the US.