Economic environment means Census 2016 has to cut its cloth

Next Sunday every person in Ireland will be included on a census form. By participating in the census, every one of us is helping to shape our understanding about life in Ireland in 2016.

Since the last census was taken in 2011, it is estimated that some 750,000 people have migrated into and out of Ireland, while a further one million can be expected to have changed address. The 2016 census will provide essential information on how these movements have shaped Ireland since April 2011.

The information gathered through the 2016 census will be used to inform policymakers and will play a crucial role in deciding such things as where to build more houses, new schools, or locate new businesses. For this reason it is vital that the information the census provides remains relevant and truly reflective of Irish life.

In advance of each census it is normal for the CSO to conduct a public consultation on the questions to be asked: new and amended questions must then be tested among the public, in line with best statistical practice, to ensure they provide sound, consistent results.

All questions on the census form must be carefully crafted and presented in a way that is easily understood and can be answered by everyone. Most are presented as a short list of options that require a simple mark, and for this and other reasons, the census has often been described as a rather blunt instrument – designed to capture basic but important information about our lives.

For the 2011 census the consultation process resulted in the inclusion of two new questions: one on foreign languages and the second on general health. A further 10 questions were amended to capture new information.

The planning for Census 2016 began four years ago. The economic environment in 2012 meant there was no guarantee that a census would be held in 2016.

However, the very clear message from both public and private sector users of the data was that, as it is the only source of detailed small area statistics, they simply could not operate without it.

Compromise

A compromise was reached which resulted in the 2016 census being run as a “no-change” census, thus minimising the cost of the census to the taxpayer.

This means that the questions on the 2016 form are the same as those used in 2011, with the exception of the question on marital status, which now includes a category for same-sex civil partnership.

The downside to running a no-change census is that certain questions can be criticised for not being sufficiently reflective of life in Ireland today.

The question on religion is a case in point. The format of the question simply asks “What is your religion?”, followed by a list of the five most popular former responses, a space to write in a religion if it is not listed, and an option for “no religion”.

The question has been criticised as, firstly, it presumes the respondent has a religion and, secondly, because Roman Catholic is presented as the first option, the suggestion is that this is seen as influencing how people respond.

The results in 2011 showed some 3.8 million people opted for Roman Catholic, while the second-largest category was “no religion” with 270,000 people.

The CSO acknowledges that the current format of the question should be reviewed and we are committed to examining it in advance of the next census, expected to be held in 2021.

In the meantime, and given the importance of the results for a wide range of public policy decisions, not least of which is the subject of school patronage, the CSO is encouraging people to answer according to how they feel about their religious beliefs or lack thereof now, and not according to how often they practise their religion, or even the religion they were born into.

For those who have a religion, they can identify that religion by marking one of the boxes or by writing a description in the write-in boxes, while those with no religion can go to the end of the question and mark “no religion”.

Public policymaking

Other questions that have come in for criticism include the one on sex, which is seen by some as insufficiently narrow to capture information on Ireland’s transgender population, while disability campaigners have lobbied for the disability question to include a separate category for autism.

The question on ethnicity has been criticised for using words of colour. Again, it is expected that these and other issues will be examined in advance of any future census.

The CSO recognises that Ireland is changing and that census data needs to change with it. In advance of the next census, expected to be in 2021, the CSO will conduct a full public consultation on the questions to be included.

Census data is at the heart of informing public policymaking, and it is critical that it produces solid data that is easily understood, well-defined, and statistically sound.

Deirdre Cullen is a senior statistician at the Central Statistics Office