Drapier: It won’t be easy for Fianna Fáil to refuse to govern

The Houses of the Oireachtas Commission issued a handy little booklet before Christmas, called Dissolution Guidelines. Among other things, it tells you where you stand financially and otherwise if you lose your seat. It's the kind of information you hope you won't need, but more than a few of Drapier's colleagues were reaching for it these last few traumatic days.

At the same time, there is the joy and satisfaction etched on the faces of the newcomers in Leinster House as they line up to sign the register with the newly appointed clerk of Dáil Éireann Peter Finnegan. The people have certainly spoken. But what did they say?

It's true that there are a lot of losers, but where or who is the winner? The Government parties were trounced, but no one knows what the ultimate outcome will be. Drapier knew there was a hiding in store, but wrongly thought that Labour would manage low double figures in seats and that, combined with Fine Gael, the Coalition would limp to 70 overall. It was not to be.

Fianna Fáil well exceeded Billy Kelleher's clever target of 35, and credit must be given. The party showed it hadn't lost its discipline and organisation. But, that said, Micheál Martin isn't within an ass's roar of the 79 votes needed to make him taoiseach. He will embark on a charm offensive around the new Dáil. But why would Independents or the smaller groups deal with Martin in preference to Kenny, who has more votes? Or will the real auction now begin? See your bridge, raise you a bypass?

The new Dáil reflects the will of the people, but it doesn’t provide an obvious answer to a basic question: who should govern? The people have become adept at meting out punishment. They are ready to dispatch parties and TDs with the efficiency of the guillotine. They did it in 2011 in spectacular style, and again in 2016. A party could be dead on its feet, and apparently reviled in one election, but bounce back on good behaviour in the next one. Labour take note.

As a practitioner, Drapier is faithful to the maxim that the voters are always right. But there is no party or Independent or political grouping that can make the country's problems go away. Fianna Fáil, the Greens, Fine Gael and Labour have all been sacked by the people in the past five years because they've been in government – a dangerous place, electorally speaking.

As for austerity not working, it bloody did work! It began in earnest under the Fianna Fáil/Green government and continued with Fine Gael/ Labour. It rescued the country from the abyss. Sure, it didn’t work electorally when it brought USC, pension levies and public expenditure cuts. It didn’t work if you lost something, and most people did. But it worked by restoring the public finances, which was the reason for it in the first place.

People couldn’t really disagree with this when you met them at the doors. But they weren’t going to vote for it. If this is just Drapier bemoaning the ingratitude of the electorate, well then, guilty as charged.

But back to the 32nd Dail. Despite everything, Drapier believes Kenny is still in the driving seat. He already has 60 or so votes in the election for taoiseach, which is significantly more than Martin, the only other real contender.

Sinn Féin failed to capitalise on Labour’s demise. There was no left-wing surge either, apart from a couple of extra seats for AAA-PBP (surely six will be too many to avoid splits?)The Social Democrats made no advances in seats, even if they stopped some Labour TDs holding on.

If neither Kenny nor Martin can cobble together an arrangement with other parties and Independents, they will have to consider talking to each other, or we’ll all be out the door again.

Drapier hears that Martin will never persuade his party to govern with Fine Gael. But the diehards will need to think of more persuasive reasons than the ones suggested so far. No one really knows what the differences are between the two largest parties, even though we all take them for granted. But if Martin says no to Kenny, he will have to have to work up a credible explanation for the people. He will have to tell them why such an arrangement would be contrary to the interests of the country. Saying it wouldn’t be good for Fianna Fail won’t cut it. And Martin knows that.

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