ANALYSIS:Faced with tightening opinion polls, Tory leader David Cameron focused on building party confidence in Brighton
ON THEIR way to Brighton for their spring gathering, the Conservatives knew that the opinion polls are tightening, and that the United Kingdom might be heading for a hung parliament.
Once there, they found the news had got worse, with a YouGov poll that indicated the Tories may not actually win in any fashion, majority, or otherwise; and that Labour’s Gordon Brown could yet produce a Lazarus-like recovery.
If replicated on polling day, Labour’s 35 per cent vote share would give it 317 seats, while the Conservatives, with 37 per cent, would end up with significantly fewer seats, just 263, due to the vagaries of the first-past-the-post system.
Such an outcome would mean Brown could stay in office – though in need of support from the Liberal Democrats; the Democratic Unionist Party; or the Scottish Nationalists; or some combination of the above.
Party leader David Cameron’s speech before they left yesterday was, therefore, all the more important: for internal consumption first; and, second, for the external audience that is beginning to engage with politics.
It certainly improved internal confidence, though the desperate need of senior Tories, including Cameron, to emphasise core messages so close to the election clearly shows that the job has not been done properly to date.
The question is why the Conservatives now find themselves in the position that they are in? And furthermore, why is Labour closer in the polls than at any time for the last two years?
The answer, simply, is the economy.
The Conservatives are faced with major dilemmas. Despite the economic crisis of the last couple of years, Gordon Brown is now more trusted on the issue than the Conservatives.
Partly, this is because budding signs of growth are being seen, but, also partly, it is because shadow chancellor George Osborne has failed to convince voters that he has the mettle for the job.
Massive cuts will be imposed by whoever wins, and Osborne wants to cut; but he cannot outline the detail clearly – even if he knows it – and still have a prayer with voters, who, as ever, want it both ways.
Privately, the Tories’ research tells them that personal attacks upon Gordon Brown do not work, and, yet, they have to make the election about him because Brown is still fundamentally unpopular.
Having called for an inquiry into allegations that Brown is a bully towards No 10 staff, Cameron quickly backed away when it became clear that the British public did not particularly care.
So, now, the Tories have chosen to portray the image of five more years of gloom under Brown, and a bright, Obama-esque dawn of community and social responsibility under their leadership.
In his speech, Cameron acknowledged that Brown says that he is a salesman, a charge to which he pleaded guilty, arguing that Britain needs an optimistic voice to speak for it in the world.
The Conservatives’ main pledges are to cut the deficit; safeguard the National Health Service (NHS); cut business taxes; give more choice about schools; restore the link between pensions and earnings; and decentralise power from Whitehall.
Given the difficulties that Brown has faced, some inflicted upon him and some self-administered, Cameron should be 20 points ahead. The reason he is not is because voters still hold doubts that he is up to it.
Over four years, he has sought to change voters’ opinions about the Conservative party: that it is no longer the “nasty” party; that the NHS is safe in its hands; that it can represent a multicultural Britain.
In a bid perhaps to show his tough side to voters, Cameron was unusually direct in his description of the British National Party leader, Nick Griffin, describing him as “a ghastly piece of filth”.
So Cameron is faced with a battle. Television debates between him, Brown and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg next month – unless Brown decides to cut and run – offer room for the unexpected.
In addition, the Tories’ relentless and expensive focus on 160 marginal seats – where candidates have been in place for four years, in some cases – must produce its own reward.
For months, the Tories have warned that Britain’s economic future is in dire jeopardy: that sterling will collapse; that the UK’s credit rating could fall; and that interest rates could be forced up.
Ironically, the prospect of instability means that international markets may reach such judgments before voters go to the polls. All of which may, of course, colour their opinions when they do.