This weekend may be a turning point in the dangerously inflamed political situation that has developed in the North during the month since Drumcree. There has been speculation about a possible return to armed violence, and warnings that loyalist and republican paramilitaries have been preparing to reap the whirlwind of the weekend's marches, in Derry and a number of other towns and villages.
What is certain is that the next 48 hours will not be easy for responsible leaders in both communities and for the security forces, and it would be hazardous to try to predict their outcome or to ignore the intransigence of attitudes on both sides that could destroy the fragile peace. Mr Peter Robinson, the deputy leader of the DUP, claimed that the Northern Secretary had admitted in effect that the greater threat would win. Mr Robinson reportedly went on to say that "unionists are very capable of being the larger force in any set of circumstances", using the traditional language of barely veiled menace to heighten tension. There can be no doubt, however, that he echoes a large section of Apprentice Boy feeling and gives voice to Orange frustration generally.
On the other side, the Bogside Residents' Group (BRG) that has led opposition to the provocative elements of the Apprentice Boys' traditional march around the walls of Derry has a large share of responsibility for what happens in the city today. The claim by its chief negotiator, Mr Donncha MacNiallais, that the group is merely providing leadership by organising demonstrations of its own to prevent matters from getting out of hand is crucial. Others, including the SDLP, take the opposite view, and have counselled against bringing people out into the streets.
There have been some indications that common sense will prevail and prevent confrontation and conflict from erupting today. Last night's curtailment of the march organised by the BRG in Derry in order to reduce the provocation to unionists removed one potential element of violence, and lowered the tone of recriminatory rhetoric at the start of the weekend. The influence of the church leaders has been having an effect, and the markedly restrained statements by leading Sinn Fein spokesmen like Mr Martin McGuinness, insisting that the demand for consent to marches places an obligation on nationalists as well as unionists, may also help to temper the situation.
Derry could, once more, give a lead to the North in finding a solution to old political problems. What the former chairman of the SDLP, Mr Mark Durkan, called "a pride of place" shared by all traditions in Derry led to the unprecedented talks between the Apprentice Boys and the Bogside residents that failed to resolve the question of local consent to marches but has put it firmly on the agenda for future action. The city has also been one of the most obvious beneficiaries of economic expansion and diversification in recent years and has clearly much to lose from a descent into the darkness of killing and destruction.
Peace this weekend could mean a turning point to strengthen the sadly depleted political forces in the North in the aftermath of a cruelly damaging marching season. But who will provide the necessary leadership?