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As Germans look anxiously to the west, to the May 7th presidential run-off, the river Rhine has rarely seemed as wide.
Even if French voters avoid the nuclear option on Sunday and reject Marine Le Pen, many Germans wonder if France hasn't already been lost.
"The Depressed Neighbour" is how the Frankfurter Allgemeine daily headlined an extensive Franco-German attitudes survey last week which it commissioned from the Allensbach polling institute.
Not known for sexing up its survey results, not even the austere Allensbach analysts could hide their concern.
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"The French believe more than the population in Germany that the centrifugal forces in the EU are growing," it warned. "A majority of French believe that cohesion of member states is growing weaker and the renationalisation tendencies are taking hold."
Public attitudes in France and Germany are a radical reversal of fortunes from 15 years ago. While France appeared to be booming, Germany was portrayed as the “sick man of Europe”, an ageing invalid that had passed its prime and would never be able to reform.
It did reform – and at considerable cost to social cohesion, say critics – but this week Berlin posted steady growth forecasts for this and next year as well as record employment figures. A stark contrast to French economic stagnation, high youth unemployment and a general feeling of hopelessness that has pervaded the presidential campaign.
"Today Germany is so strong that almost all candidates in the French election first round took issue with German dominance and economic strength," noted Dr Renate Kocher of Allensbach.
Social cohesion
In her institute’s survey results, she noted how polarised economic situations of Europe’s two big neighbours is reflected in key questions of political direction and social cohesion.
Three quarters of French respondents perceive their domestic economic situation as grim; in Germany, 8 per cent feel this way about their own economy.
While 80 per cent of Germans view their country as a good place to do business, just 42 per cent of French feel the same about their homeland. Some 75 per cent of Germans look positively towards the future – a revolutionary outbreak of optimism in the land of Angst – while just 36 per cent of French have a good feeling about the future in France.
In all key economic questions – the competitiveness of firms, employer-employee relations and pro-business attitudes of the state – the French respondents were always significantly more negative than their German neighbours.
This negativity had a knock-on effect on wider attitudes. While 61 per cent of Germans are happy with their economic system, just 27 per cent of French respondents say the same.
As a result, it’s no surprise to see that the French are considerably more critical of global economic transformation. More than half of the French polled (55 per cent), view themselves as losers of globalisation, a process they believe, on the whole, damages their country and undermines their identity and culture.
Given the strong performance of Germany’s manufacturing and exporting economy, it’s no surprise to see Germans as far less critical of globalisation, with just 13 per cent seeing it as damaging.
Free trade
The Allensbach survey showed a contradictory French attitude to free trade: while a narrow majority believe the benefits outweigh the downsides, a majority also favour higher tariffs on non-EU goods and services. Just 31 per cent of Germans back higher duty on imports from outside the bloc.
The French view of their political class is lethal: just 10 per cent have a positive view of their leaders and less than a quarter (23 per cent) view the political situation as stable, down from a third (35 per cent) two years ago.
While just 15 per cent of French believe in their political system, two thirds of Germany have a positive view of theirs.
Looking to Europe, more French than Germans are sceptical of the EU but it is still a relatively low 26 per cent of French (and 14 per cent of Germans) who believe bloc membership brings more negatives than positives.
Diverging economies and public attitudes are a major worry for Berlin officials who, for the last years, have lacked a credible partner in Paris for long-term EU planning.
As worrying as the Franco-German divergence, though, is one point of agreement of French and German respondents: a growing belief in both countries that the EU needs far-reaching reform, and growing doubts that the bloc can muster the strength needed to do so.
“Agreement and co-operation between Germany and France alone are not enough to reform the EU, but a necessary prerequisite,” noted Allensbach.
Even if Emmanuel Macron is elected president next weekend, the fact that French and Germans are united only in their pessimism for the EU's future, bodes ill as the EU27 tries to reinvent and reform amid two years of trying Brexit talks.
Derek Scally is Berlin correspondent