Leo Varadkar refused last night to say who was to blame for holding up a deal on the Border that could open the way for Brexit talks to move on to the next stage. But in Westminster and in Dublin, nobody was in any doubt about the identity of the culprit – it was Arlene Foster, in Stormont, with the telephone.
Theresa May’s phone call with the DUP leader certainly appears to have persuaded the prime minister to walk away from the deal her own officials had already agreed with the European Union. But as soon as key phrases from the draft agreement were leaked in the morning, their potential political implications began to multiply, generating doubts far beyond Northern Ireland and the DUP.
In the hours before May’s lunch with European Commission president Jean-Claude Juncker in Brussels, Downing Street sought to play down its significance as a deadline in the Brexit talks. As the prime minister arrived in Brussels, her official spokesman was repeating that the meeting was no more than a “staging post” on the way to the EU summit on December 14th. That summit will decide if there has been “sufficient progress” on the divorce bill, citizens’ rights and Ireland to move on to talks about the future relationship between Britain and the EU.
Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it's possible for part of the UK to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit. Londoners overwhelmingly voted to remain in the EU and a similar deal here could protect tens of thousands of jobs.
— Sadiq Khan (@SadiqKhan) December 4, 2017
Regulatory alignment
Throughout the morning, upbeat messages from Dublin and Brussels suggested a deal was imminent, with parts of the draft agreement leaking out. Ireland had, we were told, agreed to drop its demand for “no regulatory divergence” between North and South, in favour of a commitment to “continued regulatory alignment ”.
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The distinction was, according to British government sources, a significant one, with alignment a looser concept suggesting equivalence rather than an obligation to adopt all EU regulations. Still, it was attractive enough for Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon to declare that she wanted the same for Scotland.
“If one part of UK can retain regulatory alignment with EU and effectively stay in the single market (which is the right solution for Northern Ireland) there is surely no good practical reason why others can’t,” she said.
It was no surprise when the Welsh first minister followed suit, but then London’s mayor Sadiq Khan asked on Twitter why his city, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, should not have a similar option.
“Huge ramifications for London if Theresa May has conceded that it’s possible for part of the UK to remain within the single market & customs union after Brexit,” he said.
Foster’s statement was expressed in strong language but it was not an outright rejection of any of the language leaked from the draft agreement and restated her party’s commitment to a soft Brexit.
“We do want to see a sensible Brexit, a Brexit where the Common Travel Area is continued, where we meet our financial obligations, where we have a strict, time-limited implementation period, and where the contribution of EU migrants to our economy is recognised in a practical manner,” she said.
Economic integrity
Meanwhile, Conservative MPs began to consider the implications of the commitment to continuing regulatory alignment and Brexiteers and Remainers agreed that it could be reconciled with May’s commitment to the “economic integrity” of the UK only if the whole country stayed in the single market and the customs union.
Both May and Juncker stressed that their negotiations would continue in the next few days and further clarification to the draft language could yet persuade the DUP to back the agreement.
May’s failure to follow through on a deal her government had already agreed is a further blow to her threadbare authority and vanishing reputation for competence. The Taoiseach’s description of what happened was clear and candid, but it was also unusually blunt.
“I am surprised and disappointed that the British government now appears not to be in a position to conclude what was agreed earlier today. I accept that the prime minister has asked for more time, and I know that she faces many challenges and I acknowledge that she is negotiating in good faith,” he said.
At Westminster yesterday morning, some observers suggested it might be politically useful for May to delay agreeing a deal until closer to the date of next week’s summit. A few more days of wrangling, the theory went, might persuade hard Brexiteers on her own benches that she had put up a better fight.
Yesterday’s debacle may, however, have multiplied the prime minister’s political difficulties, as right-wingers on the Conservative backbenches rowed in behind the DUP last night. Failure to move on to the second round of Brexit talks next week would be calamitous for May, who would face massive pressure to walk away from the negotiations altogether.
Her dithering in Brussels may have bought her a few more days to reach a deal on the Border, but it has complicated her task enormously.
Denis Staunton is London Editor