This week has augured badly for the summer in Belfast and for the marching season throughout Northern Ireland. East Belfast saw the most serious disturbances in years. Firearms appeared on the streets and at least six men were shot. At this writing, reports are coming in of an attempt on the life of a young PSNI recruit - the first such attack since the inception of the service. No lives have been lost so far. But if tensions are not cooled, fatalities are inevitable.
Unionist spokesmen and the security authorities have identified the hand of the IRA - and possibly other paramilitaries - in the Short Strand rioting. Unofficial security sources have briefed journalists that the IRA and Sinn Féin want to heighten community tensions in the area in order to strengthen their hold there. This is not implausible and some corroborative detail has emerged. There have been calls for the Northern Ireland Secretary, Dr Reid, to review the status of the IRA's ceasefire. It is unlikely that he will rush to any judgment, confining himself to calling on community leaders to hold their people back.
The First Minister and Unionist leader, Mr Trimble, has not made an especially useful contribution at this time with his criticisms of the Parades Commission. The commission is too driven by public order considerations, he said, and insufficiently by consideration of people's traditional rights. He would prefer a tribunal-type approach, with more balance between these issues. The Taoiseach has been understated in his reponse to Mr Trimble's statement. These are matters better addressed in the long, winter nights, he observed.
The First Minister's declaration of no confidence in the Parades Commission will have the effect of weakening its authority on the eve of the marching season. In saying what he did, Mr Trimble is expressing a view that is widespread throughout the unionist community. But it is likely to be seized on by elements that dearly want to heighten the seasonal tension and to put pressure on the security forces. If the moral authority of the commission is undermined, the consequences on the streets during July and August could be catastrophic.
There are real questions over the capacity of the Police Service of Northern Ireland to contain large- scale violence this summer. Great numbers of experienced officers of the RUC have departed. Many new recruits will be standing in the police lines. The senior officer corps has been depleted. Hence, the PSNI has indicated that it will use water cannon as a crowd control measure if disturbances continue.
Anything that adds to the combustibility of the present situation should be eschewed. But the police may have little choice. Street violence in Northern Ireland has been described as an extension of politics. Some of those involved in the recent disturbances - both republican and loyalist - are to be found in other guises as self-styled politicians. But these dual-role existences cannot be sustained indefinitely. For all parties, there has to be an ultimate choice between the democratic way and the way of violence. It is regrettable, as these difficult weeks come round again, that some think they can continue to have it both ways.