Sometimes a fleeting moment can hold a stunning opportunity. One can summon up the courage and step up to the plate, or squirm at the sidelines knowing that you can do it but making excuses not to. The current crisis in Ukraine presents Ireland with such an opportunity.
Wider geopolitical issues aside, at its core the conflict is one of civil war within the sovereign territory of Ukraine, where the ethic Russian populations of the Donbass region, specifically the provinces of Donetsk and Lugansk, are in armed conflict with their Ukrainian governors and compatriots. These provinces, formerly autonomous republics within the Soviet Union, identify as Russian and resent being part of Ukraine. The plight of these ethnic Russian minorities in sovereign Ukrainian and the ensuing civil conflict directly parallels that of the plight of the Irish Catholic minority in the sovereign UK territory of Northern Ireland prior to the Belfast Agreement.
A second parallel to Northern Ireland is seen in how Donetsk and Lugansk fell into Ukrainian borders. Prior to the Russian Revolution in 1917, Donetsk and Lugansk formed part of Imperial Russia, a large country which encompassed Russia, Ukraine and many parts of the former Soviet Union. When modern-day Ukraine was being formed after the Revolution, Donetsk and Lugansk – who had already declared themselves as independent People’s Republics – fell into the Ukraine Soviet simply because the Bolsheviks did not achieve the majority in a vote at the All-Ukrainian Congress of Soviets in 1918.
Our own partition
This random act of history mirrors that of many Irish Catholic and Protestant communities that were similarly caught on the “wrong” side of the Border during our own partition in 1921.The situation eased when Ukraine became a founding member of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) in 1922: the Soviets recognised that Donetsk and Lugansk did not identify as Ukrainian and dealt with this situation by designating them as autonomous republics within the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic.
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Even with this status Donetsk and Lugansk were still unhappy. According to documents released recently by the US’s National Security Archive, Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev warned the US about the potential for conflict in these regions during their discussions as the Soviet Union veered towards disintegration in 1991. Indeed, it was because the US correctly foresaw the potential for multiple ethnic conflicts that their preference at this time was that the Soviet Union would remain intact.
When the Maidan protests of 2014 deposed the government of president Viktor Yanukovych and replaced it with a pro-EU government this upset the Russian populations in Donbass. Fighting between the Ukrainians and ethnic Russians increased, with external funding fuelling the flames on both sides.
A diplomatic solution to the situation was found in the Minsk protocols (2015), agreed in the “Normandy Format” talks between Ukraine, Russia, France Germany and regional leaders. These protocols provide for Donetsk and Lugansk to self-govern within the sovereign Ukraine. However, seven years later the conflict is ongoing as Ukraine, being pulled in various directions by the attentions of multiple external players, is dragging its heels on implementing the Minsk protocols. Here we see a third parallel with Northern Ireland: despite a signed agreement on Brexit in the province, the British government is dragging its heels on implementing the Northern Ireland protocol.
Given the stark parallels between the Donbass region and Northern Ireland surely stepping up to lead the peace negotiations in Ukraine is an opportunity for Irish diplomacy, and most particularly so now, with our seat on the UN Security Council? Though France, Hungary and Turkey have all asserted themselves as peacemakers, Ireland’s political and diplomatic success in securing peace in Northern Ireland is one of the standout political achievements of the late 20th century. Why not replicate this success in Ukraine by offering our expertise and diplomatic nous as a neutral European country?
Irish peace proposal
To date we have not yet put ourselves forward for this role. As our contribution to the UN’s crisis debate last week went no further than reiterating the standard EU position of support for the territorial sovereignty of Ukraine, I assumed that due to the current poor state of political relations between Ireland and Russia, our diplomats had judged that the Russian Federation would not entertain any Irish peace proposal and had advised our Minister for Foreign Affairs that we keep a low profile.
However, during his appearance at the Oireachtas Foreign Affairs Committee hearing last Wednesday, the Russian ambassador Yuri Filyatov invited Ireland to participate in diplomatic efforts in finding a solution to the crisis in Ukraine.
Was this a serious invitation or a tongue-in-cheek response to our fishermen taking a more pragmatic approach to solving problems than our politicians? Or was the ambassador quietly pointing out that our Department of Foreign Affairs is so distracted by the hot air around routine Russian naval drills that we are failing to see our opportunity to score a diplomatic triumph in Eastern Ukraine?
Anna Mackey studied Russian at Trinity College Dublin and has lived and worked in Russia and eastern Europe since 1992