Coronavirus: Secondary schools and universities should close now

With the advent of Covid19 Ireland is facing into what a leading health scientist, Dr Sam McConkey, called a combination of the Spanish flu, the Wall Street Crash and the Civil War.

To date the Government, presumably from advice to not panic people, has been tentative in terms of implementation of non-medical interventions. The delays in cancelling the St Patrick’s Day parade exemplified this approach.

Covid-19 is a killer. It is a killer in particular of the elderly and those who are already ill.

Overall mortality rates of between one and three per cent, - combined with a high “attack” rate, which refers to the percentage of the population that become infected - means that there will be significant mortality. Mortality rates rise into the low teens in older patients. The impact on the already strained health system will be severe.

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In all this, governments essentially face two choices - to allow the virus to run ly its course, with a rapid rise in cases followed by, hopefully, a rapid decline, or to “flatten the curve” and spread the cases out.

The danger with the first is that the health system may become utterly swamped, while the aim of the second is to keep the caseload manageable.

A wide range of research has shown that social distancing is among the most effective ways to mitigate the impact of a pandemic.

Put simply, the idea is that society makes it harder for an infected person to infect another.

This is at the heart of the admittedly draconian but seemingly effective approach taken by the Chinese government and at the German and French moves to curtail large crowds.

We know from studies of the 1918 Spanish flu pandemic that a layered approach - including closing schools and curtailing crowds - is effective, and that the earlier it is implemented, the later is the peak of any pandemic.

Closing schools is economically disruptive, especially if primary schools are closed.

Given the fragmented and expensive nature of childcare, many parents would in effect be required to stay home.

However, there is little reason for universities and senior cycle secondary schools to remain open.

Humid funk

In particular, the third level system should now pivot to online provision of as much academic and support services as possible, leaving only essential lab-based activities onsite.

Anyone who has taught in a third level institution is well aware of the humid funk that envelopes even modern teaching facilities by the end of the day.

Cramming several hundred people into a confined space is the antithesis of social distancing. While students and faculty are not, in the main, in high risk groups, it is now clear that people can be infectious and asymptomatic.

So while the student may not be at risk, they act as vectors for infection of others who may well be in much greater danger, all unknowing.

Moving to an online approach where possible will not stop the pandemic, but it will slow it. There are upwards of 200,000 students in the sector, and spreading these out rather than concentrating them would be a useful social distancing intervention.

This has happened in some US universities, including some of the most elite. It is happening on an ad hoc, module by module basis, across the Irish third level space. A coordinated approach would be more effective.

A number of institutions already have a mid-semester reading or study week and this could be the basis for three or four week online approach, reviewable as we go forward.

While waiting, it is imperative to implement much stricter distancing on campus. Dining halls, campus bars and cafés need to spread people out. College theatrical and movie clubs need to consider suspension of activities. Debating societies need to do likewise.

Of course this will be disruptive - but not as much as being placed in a hospital bed.

Brian Lucey is professor of International Finance and Commodities at the Trinity Business School